Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, July 8, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as last week
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, Morning Consult) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as last week), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Among all general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (53-43)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (48-46)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (49-48)
Elizabeth Warren (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (48-48)
Pete Buttigieg (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (47-47)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is great news for Biden––it strengthens the argument that he’s the strongest Democrat against Trump and may be the only Democrat who can ultimately beat Trump…. This poll also shows that 77% of Trump voters say his re-election is extremely or very important to them. On the other end, 89% of voters who support Democratic candidates say it’s extremely or very important to them that Trump is not re-elected…. In addition: 37% of the electorate wants Congress to begin impeachment proceedings, while 59% oppose doing so. From a public opinion standpoint, it looks like impeachment is a loser issue for Democrats––which is why Speaker Pelosi has run away from it.
VOTING ISSUES IN 2020
Among voters nationwide
Thinking again about the general election in 2020, for each item I name please tell me how important it will be in you vote for president – one of the single most important issues, very important, somewhat important, or less important than that?
% = One of the single most important issues + Very important
The economy: 82%
Health care: 80%
Immigration: 80%
Foreign policy: 72%
Gun violence: 71%
Issues of special concern to women: 69%
Taxes: 68%
Abortion: 61%
Climate change: 54%
RON’S COMMENT: Among the national electorate, the economy, health care and immigration are now the top three voting issues for the next presidential election. Among only Democrats, health care (89%), gun violence (85%) and women’s issues (82%) are the top three.
UNIVERSAL HEALTH INSURANCE
Among adults nationwide
Which would you prefer: the current health insurance system in the United States, in which most people get their health insurance from private employers, but some people have no insurance; or a universal health insurance program, in which everyone is covered under a program like Medicare that’s run by the government and financed by taxpayers?
Universal insurance: 52%
Current system: 41%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of U.S. adults favor a universal health insurance program, in which everyone is covered under a program like Medicare that’s run by the government and financed by taxpayers. However, that 52% majority falls 9 points to 43% when these same adults are asked if they support a Medicare for all plan without a private insurance option (7% oppose such a plan without a private insurance option and another 2% aren’t sure).
2019 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION SCHEDULE
Louisiana Governor
Open Primary: October 12
Runoff: November 16
Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is seeking re-election. Two Republicans are running: U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham and businessman Eddie Rispone.
Mississippi Governor
Primary: August 6
Runoff: August 27
General Election: Nov. 5
Incumbent Gov. Phil Bryant (R) is term limited. Three Republicans are running: state Rep. Robert Foster, Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. Nine Democrats are in the race, including state AG Jim Hood and Hinds County DA Robert Shuler Smith.
Kentucky Governor
Primary: May 21
General Election: Nov. 5
Incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin (R) is seeking re-election. Democratic AG Andy Beshear and Libertarian John Hicks are opposing him.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT, VOTING ISSUES IN 2020, HEALTH INSURANCE:Washington Post-ABC News: June 28 – July 1
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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