LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Shifting Polls – Border Crisis – North Korea – Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Morning Consult) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.


Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

% = Quinnipiac/ABC-WaPo/The Economist 
Joe Biden: 22%/30%/23%  
Kamala Harris: 20%/13%/15%  
Bernie Sanders: 13%/19%/9% 
Elizabeth Warren: 14%/12%/19%  
Pete Buttigieg: 4%/4%/8%  
Julian Castro: 1%/3%/1%  
Cory Booker: 3%/1%/2%  
Amy Klobuchar: 1%/2%/0%  
Beto O’Rourke: 1%/2%/2%  
Candidates with 1% or less in all three polls not listed
RON’S COMMENT: You could get whiplash trying to follow these varying poll results. For example, Sanders ranges from 9% to 19% today, Biden from 22% to 30%, Harris from 13% to 20%, Warren from 12% to 19% and Buttigieg from 4% to 8%…. Voters took a look at all the candidates for the first time and the kaleidoscope is shifting …. In the new Quinnipiac poll, Harris is breathing down Biden’s neck for first place. Over the last three weeks in this poll, Biden has dropped 8 points, Harris has come up 13 points, Warren has slipped 1 point, Sanders has dropped 6 points, Buttigieg has dropped 4 points and Booker has come up 2 points…. In the new ABC/Washington Post poll, Biden has a bigger lead, with Sanders second and Harris running third…. In the Economist/YouGov poll, the most recently conducted, Warren is a close second to Biden and Harris is third. Sanders has deteriorated to a single-digit fourth place…. The following internals are based on Quinnipiac’s data:
Shifts over the past three weeks by ideology: Among the most liberal Democrats, Biden dropped 3 points, Harris moved up 18 points, Warren has moved down 2 points and Sanders dropped 8 points. Among moderate Democrats, Biden dropped 8 points, Harris moved up 11 points, Warren dropped 3 points, Sanders dropped 5 points and Buttigieg slipped 1 point.
Black voters: Biden holds first place among African American voters with 31% and Harris is second with 27%. Sanders is third with 16%, Booker is fourth with 5% and Warren is fifth with 4%. 
On candidate traits: 
Best leader: Biden 26%, Harris 16%, Warren 15%, Sanders 15%
Best policy ideas: Warren 31%, Sanders 18%, Biden 11%, Harris 8%
Best chance to beat Trump: Biden 42%, Harris 14%, Sanders 13%, Warren 9%
On the debates:
Who won the debate: Harris 47%, Warren 17%, Biden 6%, Sanders 5%, Castro 3%, Buttigieg 3%

Among Democratic voters nationwide

Average of the six post-debate national polls:
Joe Biden: 27% 
Kamala Harris: 15%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 5% 
Cory Booker: 2%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the post-debate polls has Biden in the lead with Harris tying Sanders for second place and Warren on their heels.

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 
Democratic candidate: 49% (+3 since last week)
Trump: 39% (-1 since last week)
It depends: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is now ahead by 10 points, up from 6 points last week. 

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling North Korea? 
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: 82% of Republicans and 12% of Democrats approve.

Among voters nationwide

Thinking about the current situation at the border between the United States and Mexico, do you consider the situation at the border to be a crisis, or not?
Yes, it’s a crisis: 74%
No, it’s not a crisis: 23%
RON’S COMMENT: 70% of Democrats, 72% of independents and 82% of Republicans say it’s a crisis. The poll also finds that…. 

  • Voters who think there is a crisis are split almost evenly on why there is a crisis: about half say it’s because of the number of migrants who are attempting to cross the border and half say it’s because of the way migrants are treated. 
  • 31% of all voters approve and 62% disapprove of the way migrants attempting to cross the U.S. border are being treated by the U.S. government. Only 5% of Democrats approve, while 62% of Republicans do.
  • 60% of all voters favor allowing refugees from central American countries to seek asylum States and 35% oppose doing so. More Democrats favor doing so than Republicans (85% vs. 31%). 

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Do you think health insurance coverage provided by the government should or should not be available to undocumented immigrants living in the United States? 
Yes, should be available to undocumented immigrants: 61%
No, should NOT be available to undocumented immigrants: 36%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of Democratic primary voters say health insurance coverage provided by the government should be available to undocumented immigrants. It’s highest among women (63%), 18-44 year olds (70%) and nonwhites (65%)…. This issue finds a big difference between liberal Democrats and moderate Democrats (75% vs. 49%).

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac, June 28-July 1; ABC-Washington Post, June 28-July 1; The Economist/YouGov, June 30-July 2
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, NORTH KOREA: The Economist/YouGov, June 30-July 2
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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