Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, July 2, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 22% (-10 from a month ago)
Kamala Harris: 17% (+9)
Elizabeth Warren: 15% (+8)
Bernie Sanders: 14% (-4)
Pete Buttigieg: 4% (-1)
Cory Booker: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 3% (-2)
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Julian Castro: 2% (-1)
John Delaney: *
Kirsten Gillibrand: * (-1)
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Steve Bullock: %
Andrew Yang: 1%
John Hickenlooper: *
Michael Bennet: * (-1)
Jay Inslee: * (-1)
Bill de Blasio: 1% (+1)
Seth Moulton: *
Tim Ryan: * (-1)
Eric Swalwell: *
Marianne Williamson: *
RON’S COMMENT: This CNN poll was taken a few days after the debates, so should provide a fuller view than the poll we reported yesterday which showed much less pronounced numbers. Based on these numbers, looks like Biden took a hard hit over the past month, dropping 10 points. Sanders also took a hit, losing 4 points. Harris zoomed up 9 points and Warren jumped up 8 points. Overall, this poll shows a flattened field, with the top vote-getter at 22% and the fourth candidate at 14%. Harris has displaced Sanders for second place, with Warren closely behind.
But… a new Hill-HarrisX poll of Democrats nationwide taken about the same time as the CNN poll paints a different picture and shows less pronounced shifts. It has Biden 33% (down 2 from mid-June), Sanders 15% (up 2), Harris 11% (up 6), Warren 9% (up 2) and Buttigieg 6% (up 2).
Looking at demographics: In the CNN poll, Biden does better among men than women (25% vs. 20%) and among nonwhites than whites (25% vs. 20%)…. Harris does about the same among men and women (18%, 17%) and slightly better among nonwhites than whites (19% vs. 17%)…. Warren does much better among women than men (17% vs. 11%). She also does better among whites than nonwhites (16% vs. 13%)…. Sanders does a little better among men than women (15% vs. 13%) and whites than nonwhites (15% vs. 13%).
Top Candidates on the Issues: Regardless of who you may support, which Democratic candidate for president do you think can best handle [the following issues]?
% = Economy/Healthcare/Climate Change/Race Relations
Joe Biden: 28%/18%/19%/16%
Kamala Harris: 6%/10%/6%/29%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%/16%/14%/6%
Bernie Sanders: 16%/26%/19%/13%
RON’S COMMENT: In the CNN poll, Biden wins the economy and is tied for first place on climate. Harris wins race relations by a wide margin, but ranks much lower on all other issues. Warren doesn’t win any issue, but ranks high on all except race. Sanders wins healthcare and ties on climate.
Electability: Regardless of who you may support, which Democratic candidate for president do you think has the best chance to beat Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election?
Joe Biden: 43%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Kamala Harris: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: Though his vote is down, Biden still wins the electability argument by a wide margin.
Debate watching: As you may have heard, the first debates among the Democratic candidates for president were held Wednesday and Thursday night. Each debate included ten candidates, and they aired on NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo and were available to stream on several platforms. Which of the following statements best describes you?
Watched all or most of both debates: 29%
Watched only the Wednesday debate: 4%
Watched only the Thursday debate: 10%
Did not watch much of either debate, but I paid close attention to news stories about them after- wards: 36%
Watched neither the debates nor saw news stories: 21%
RON’S COMMENT: 43% of Democratic primary voters nationwide say they watched all or some of the debates and another 36% say they paid close attention to post-debate news stories.
Among debate-watchers: Regardless of who you may support, which candidate do you think did the best job in the debates?
Kamala Harris: 41%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Joe Biden: 10%
Julian Castro: 4%
Bernie Sanders: 4%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Michael Bennet: 1%
This list includes all candidates who received 1% or more
RON’S COMMENT: Harris is the runaway winner of the debate. But, while 41% think she won the debate, only 17% vote for her. Warren comes in a distant second. While 4% think Castro won the debate, only 1% vote for him. While 22% vote for Biden and 14% vote for Sanders, only 10% think Biden won the debate and only 4% think Sanders won it.
IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
Among Democrats statewide
Joe Biden: 24%
Kamala Harris: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Bernie Sanders: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
This list includes all candidates who received 2% or more
RON’S COMMENT: This Iowa post-debate poll shows Biden still out front, but Harris has moved into second place. Warren is not far behind. Sanders sinks to fourth place, in single digits…. Biden does better with those Democrats very likely to vote (26%) than those who are somewhat likely to vote (19%). Same is true for Warren, 14% and 10%. Harris, on the other hand, does better with those somewhat likely to vote (21%) than those who are very likely to vote (13%)…. Among second choice votes (which could become important in a caucus state), it’s Harris 17%, Warren 16%, Buttigieg 14%, Biden 11% and Sanders 6%.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
When was the last time the Democratic Party chose a non-lawyer to be its presidential nominee?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: CNN, June 28-30
IOWA: Suffolk/USA Today, June 28-July 1
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
1980. Jimmy Carter was not a lawyer, but every Democratic presidential nominee since has been.
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment