Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, July 1, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+2 from Friday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
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NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 33% (-5 since the debates)
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 12% (-1)
Kamala Harris: 12% (+6)
Pete Buttigieg: 6% (-1)
Cory Booker: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Beto O’Rourke: 2% (-2)
Amy Klobuchar: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
John Delaney: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Bill de Blasio: 1%
Steve Bullock: 1%
Seth Moulton: 1%
Tim Ryan: 1%
Eric Swalwell: 0%
Michael Bennet: 0%
John Hickenlooper: 0%
Jay Inslee: 0%
Marianne Williamson: 0%
RON’S COMMENT: This polling was conducted right after the debates, which means it may have been too soon to measure the full impact of the face-to-face showdowns…. Nevertheless, this early reading shows Biden down 5 points from where he was before the debates, O’Rourke down 2 and Harris up 6. Other candidates experienced only slight or no movement. Despite widely praised first-night debate performances, Castro and Gabbard didn’t move up from 1% and Warren actually went down a point. Perhaps first-night debate gains were washed away by the second night’s program? That’s an hypothesis that should be tested.
On favorability ratings among Democratic voters, Biden is now 71% favorable/21% unfavorable, Sanders 67% favorable/23% unfavorable, Warren 63% favorable/12% unfavorable, Harris 55% favorable/14% unfavorable, O’Rourke 41% favorable/21% unfavorable and Buttigieg 47% favorable/10% unfavorable.
Who drops out first? Looks like the debate didn’t help quite a few candidates who badly needed traction. Incumbent senators Klobuchar, Gillibrand and Bennet, who are still polling at 1% or less, are good examples. At some point, if they don’t show movement they will have to reassess their candidacies. None of these three face re-election this year, but will in 2022 or 2024. The same may apply to Gov. Inslee. His state has a gubernatorial election in 2020 and he’s not term limited. Booker is the only incumbent senator running for president with a seat that’s up in 2020. Incumbent U.S. Reps. Gabbard, Ryan, Moulton and Swalwell hold House seats up in 2020…. Of course, it’s still very early in this presidential race, and these candidates may decide to ride it out a while longer, at least until the next round of debates July 30-31.
MAINE: SENATE 2020
Among voters statewide
Sen. Susan Collins (R) over Sara Gideon (D): +16 (52-36)
RON’S COMMENT: Gideon wins Democrats 64-29 and Collins wins Republicans 79-10 and independents 48-35. Collins also does well with voters 18-29 years old, winning them 59-18.
TRUMP ON THE ISSUES
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling…
% = Approve/Disapprove
The economy: 51%/41%
Veterans: 48%/41%
Terrorism: 47%/43%
Taxes: 46%/46%
Immigration: 46%/49%
Foreign policy: 45%/47%
Civil rights: 43%/46%
Gun control: 43%/48%
Education: 41%/44%
Abortion: 41%/47%
Women’s rights: 40%/47%
Healthcare: 41%/50%
Social Security: 39%/46%
The environment: 39%/50%
Medicare: 38%/48%
The budget deficit: 37%/53%
Gay rights: 33%/47%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump is net positive on three issues: the economy (+10), veterans (+7) and terrorism (+4). He’s even on taxes. His worst net negative is the budget deficit (-16)…. On civil rights, Trump is 43% approve/39% disapprove among whites and 21% approve/59% disapprove among blacks…. On abortion, he’s 33% approve/47% disapprove among women and 41% approve/40% disapprove among men…. On immigration, he’s 50% approve/41% disapprove among whites and 35% approve/52% disapprove among Hispanics…. On Social Security, he’s 42% approve/45% disapprove among Americans 65 years old and older…. On foreign policy, keep in mind this poll was taken before President Trump’s recent visit to North and South Korea.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult, June 27-28
MAINE: Gravis, June 24
TRUMP ON THE ISSUES: The Economist/YouGov, June 22-25
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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