LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Abortion – Social Security – Iowa – Dem Nod: Consideration and First Choice

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: In terms of both positives and negatives, President Trump has rarely polled better than he does in today’s average…. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Morning Consult, Emerson) to 48% (Rasmussen)…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.

Among Democrats nationwide

% = Considering candidate/First choice vote
Joe Biden: 56%/27%
Elizabeth Warren: 47%/19%
Bernie Sanders: 40%/14%
Kamala Harris: 37%/8%
Pete Buttigieg: 30%/6%
Beto O’Rourke: 26%/4%
Cory Booker: 22%/2%
Amy Klobuchar: 12%/1%
Julian Castro: 10%/1%
Candidates with less than 10% consideration not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The first number alongside each candidate is the percentage of Democrats who are considering voting for him or her (that’s why the numbers add up to more than 100%, since voters can pick multiple candidates). The second number is the percentage of Democrats who vote for the candidate as their first choice…. This poll shows Warren eclipsing Sanders for second place in both consideration and first choice votes.

Among Democratic voters statewide

Joe Biden: 27%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 17%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Cory Booker: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed

RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds first place, but Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg are not far behind. 

Among adults nationwide

Which comes closest to your view on abortion: it should always be legal; it should be legal with some limitations; it should be illegal except for rape, incest or to save the mother’s life; or it should always be illegal?
Always legal: 32%
Legal with limitations: 31%
Illegal except rape, incest, mother’s life: 24%
Always illegal: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: 12% of Republicans say abortion should always be legal, 29% say legal with some limitations, 40% say illegal with exceptions, and 17% say always illegal…. 50% of Democrats say abortion should always be legal, 31% legal with some limitations, 12% illegal with exceptions, and 6% say always illegal…. 29% of independents say abortion should always be legal, 34% legal with some limitations, 23% illegal with exceptions, and 9% say always illegal.
How important will the issue of abortion be in your vote for president next year––will it be very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?
Most important: 2%
Very important: 32%
Somewhat important: 30%
Not too/or not at all important: 34%
RON’S COMMENT: More than a third of Americans say abortion will be a very or the most important factor in their presidential vote––with 26% of Republicans, 44% of Democrats, 28% of independents, 26% of men and 40% of women agreeing on the issue’s high level of importance.

Democratic presidential candidates and abortion: Among Democrats who say the abortion issue is very important to them, 28% support Joe Biden, 21% Elizabeth Warren, 18% Bernie Sanders, 7% Kamala Harris, 5% Cory Booker, 4% Beto O’Rourke, 3% Pete Buttigieg and 3% Andrew Yang for their party’s presidential nomination.  
Are Republican politicians in Washington devoting too much effort on abortion issues, not enough effort, or the right amount?
Too much effort: 49%
Not enough effort: 20%
Right amount: 22%
Are Democratic politicians in Washington devoting too much effort on abortion issues, not enough effort, or the right amount?
Too much effort: 39%
Not enough effort: 27%
Right amount: 24%

Summer schedule

When: Wednesday, June 26, 9 pm ET
Where: NBC, MSNBC, Telemundo
Who: Warren, O’Rourke, Booker, Klobuchar, Inslee, Castro, Gabbard, de Blasio, Ryan and Delaney
When: Thursday, June 27, 9 pm ET
Where: NBC, MSNBC, Telemundo
Who: Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris, Bennet, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Swalwell, Williamson and Yang
The next debates will be broadcast onCNN (July 30 and 31) and ABC and Univision (Sept. 12-13)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: Change Research, June 17-20
ABORTION: Monmouth Univ.,June 12-17
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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