Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, June 25, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES
Summer schedule
When: Wednesday, June 26, 9 pm ET
Where: NBC, MSNBC, Telemundo
Who: Warren, O’Rourke, Booker, Klobuchar, Inslee, Castro, Gabbard, de Blasio, Ryan and Delaney
When: Thursday, June 27, 9 pm ET
Where: NBC, MSNBC, Telemundo
Who: Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Harris, Bennet, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Swalwell, Williamson and Yang
The next debates will be broadcast on CNN (July 30 and 31) and on ABC and Univision (Sept. 12-13)
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Among general election voters nationwide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (53-47)
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Kamala Harris (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = Emerson/Morning Consult = Average
Joe Biden: 34%/38% = 36
Bernie Sanders: 27%/19% = 23
Elizabeth Warren: 14%/13% = 13.5
Pete Buttigieg: 6%/7% = 6.5
Kamala Harris: 7%/6% = 6.5
Cory Booker: 3%/3% = 3
Beto O’Rourke: 1%/4% = 2.5
Andrew Yang: 1%/2% = 1.5
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: These two polls show similar results, except on Sanders, where there is wide divergence…. In any case, Biden holds strong while Buttigieg and Harris are stuck battling for fourth place. The action continues to focus on Warren and Sanders, where there has been quite a bit of fluctuation over the past month…. In the Morning Consult poll, Warren has gone up 2 points since last week and Harris has declined 1 point …. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 43%, then Sanders 21% and Warren 9%.
NORTH CAROLINA: GOVERNOR 2020
Among voters statewide
Gubernatorial general election trial heats:
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): +4 (45-41)
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Phil Berger (R): +7 (46-39)
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Tim Moore (R): +8 (46-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Democratic incumbent Cooper posts a modest lead over Forest, the current lieutenant governor and an architect by trade. Cooper does better against Berger, a state senator and an attorney by trade. Moore is state House Speaker and also an attorney…. In the Cooper-Forest trial heat, Democrat Cooper gets 9% of Trump voters and 84% of Hillary Clinton voters. Republican Forest gets 76% of Trump voters and 7% of Hillary Clinton voters.
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Roy Cooper’s job performance?
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 41%
NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN ADS
Among voters nationwide
Do you think it is appropriate or inappropriate for candidates to use negative advertising about their opponents during campaigns?
Appropriate: 27%
Inappropriate: 54%
Not sure: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: By a two-to-one margin, voters say negative advertising is inappropriate. Of course, most campaigns use negative ads because they often work, especially when the attacks are viewed as factual and fair…. Republicans (36%) and men (31%) are most likely to say negative ads are appropriate.
WILL TRUMP WIN?
Among voters nationwide
How likely do you think it is that Donald Trump will NOT win reelection in 2020?
Likely he won’t win: 52%
Not likely he won’t win: 36%
Not sure: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: More Democrats than Republicans say it’s NOT likely that Trump will be re-elected (56% vs. 44%)…. Note: It would be a good idea if the pollster who wrote this question would change it to “likely to win” as opposed to “likely… will not win.” it causes unnecessary confusion in its present form.
TRUMP AND LYING
Among voters nationwide
Do you think Donald Trump has or has not ever lied to the American people?
He has lied to the American people: 60%
He has not lied to the American people: 24%
Not sure: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: While 89% of Democrats think Trump has lied, only 23% of Republicans do.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
When was the first televised debate between candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: Emerson College, June 21-24
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Emerson College, June 21-24; Politico/Morning Consult, June 17-23
NORTH CAROLINA: PPP (D), June 17-18
NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN ADS, TRUMP WINNING RE-ELECTION, TRUMP AND LYING: The Economist/YouGov, June 16-18
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
1956. The debate was held May 21 and broadcast on ABC from Miami, featuring Democrats Adlai Stevenson, former Illinois governor and 1952 presidential nominee, and Estes Kefauver, senator from Tennessee.
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