LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Iran – Huckabee Sanders, Conway Rated – Warren, Trump and Jobs – Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, June 20, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Morning Consult) to 49% (Suffolk). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
Lunchtime Politics will take a break tomorrow. We’ll see you back Monday!

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 
Democratic candidate: 49% (+3 since last week)
Trump: 41% (same as last week)
It depends: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat is ahead by 8 points, up 3 points from last week. Trump wins men by 7 points and whites by 3 points. He loses women by 17 points, blacks 62-13 points and Hispanics 40-29.

Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = The Economist/Monmouth = Average
Joe Biden: 27%/32% = 29.5
Elizabeth Warren: 14%/15% = 14.5
Bernie Sanders: 14%/14% = 14
Kamala Harris: 7% /8% = 7.5
Pete Buttigieg: 9%/5% = 7
Beto O’Rourke: 4%/3% = 3.5
Cory Booker: 2%/2% = 2
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Both polls show Biden on top with Warren and Sanders in a battle for second place. Then, we have Harris and Buttigieg fighting it out for the next tier…. Compared to the prior week, The Economist poll shows quite a bit of fluctuation among the top candidates: Biden is down 2, Warren is down 4, Sanders is down 5 and Buttigieg is up 2. If accurate, we are likely seeing candidate shopping, where voters who like multiple candidates are shifting preferences based on small bits of new information…. Compared to the prior month, the Monmouth poll shows Biden down 1, Warren up 5 and Sanders down 1…. From the Monmouth poll report on the upcoming debates: “About half of Democratic voters are looking forward to next week’s inaugural debates, although just 13% say they are excited about them while 36% are very interested. Another 34% have some interest and 17% have no interest at all. Liberals (60%) are more likely than non-liberals (38%) to have a high level of interest. Most Democrats (58%) say they plan to watch the debates live, 27% will watch clips afterwards, and 14% say they will not watch any of the June debates.”

Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (47-47)
RON’S COMMENT: Another case of dueling polls: Yesterday, we reported a Quinnipiac poll showing Biden beating Trump by a substantial 9 points in Florida. This survey, from St. Pete Polls, shows an even race (although without rounding, Biden leads by half a point). An FAU poll from mid-May also had it a tie, making the Quinnipiac poll the outlier of these three polls…. Trump pulls 40% of Hispanic voters in this new survey, but only gets 3% from blacks. Biden wins younger voters, but Trump leads among those 70 and older, 52-42…. This poll shows Trump’s job approval rating at 49%…. Timing note: This poll was taken before Trump’s recent campaign kick-off in Florida.

Among voters statewide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (49-46)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (48-47)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +2 (48-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +1 (47-46) 
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +3 (47-44)

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows a close contest for North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, with Biden and Sanders edging Trump and Trump edging Harris, Warren and Buttigieg. Trump carried the state in 2016 by a 3.6-point margin. While he’s not clearly ahead in this poll, he’s still very much in the hunt…. The poll report points out that “North Carolina was the second closest state in the country for President in both 2008 and 2012 and at least at this early stage seems like it could be headed for a similarly close outcome in this election cycle.”

Among Democratic voters statewide

Joe Biden: 36% 
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Pete Buttigieg: 11% 
Kamala Harris: 7%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll of Virginia Democrats finds “Biden leading among women surveyed (41%), those 65 years of age and older (53%), with Blacks (58%) and in the Tidewater Region (42%).” Sanders polls “higher among men (21%), young registered voters between the ages of 18-34 (25%), whites (15%), and, in the Tidewater region (24%).” Warren gets 14% of women, 17% of young voters ages 18-34 and 15% of whites. However “she has more support in the Northern Virginia and the Northern Neck regions (15%). Buttigieg “is favored by men (15%), 35-54 year olds (16%), whites (15%) and recognized more in the Northern Virginia and Northern Neck regions (15%).”

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is handling Iran? 
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: 83% of Republicans and 37% of independents approve. Very few Democrats do.
How serious a threat do you think Iran poses to the United States? 
An immediate and serious threat to the U.S.: 18%
A somewhat serious threat to the U.S.: 40%
A minor threat to the U.S.: 25%
Not a threat to the U.S.: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: Only 18% of the U.S. electorate sees Iran as an immediate and serious threat, which is not nearly enough to expect public opinion to rally for war. By party: 30% of Republicans, 14% of independents and 12% of Democrats see Iran as an immediate and serious threat.
Do you support or oppose U.S. military action against Iran if it is proven that country is responsible for attacks on commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf? 
Support strongly: 24%
Support somewhat: 25% 
Oppose somewhat: 18% 
Oppose strongly: 18% 
RON’S COMMENT: By party: 77% of Republicans, 40% of independents and 31% of Democrats support to some degree U.S. military action against Iran if proven that it’s responsible for attacks on commercial shipping.

Among voters statewide

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people? 
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Sarah Huckabee Sanders: 39%/45% 
Kellyanne Conway: 36%/46%
RON’S COMMENT: Most independents and Democrats have highly unfavorable opinions of Huckabee Sanders and Conway, but Republicans like them. Among GOP voters, Huckabee Sanders is 69% favorable/13% unfavorable and Conway is 63% favorable/14% unfavorable.

Excerpted from an analysis by Frank Newport, Gallup

  • Warren’s proposals: “Elizabeth Warren is getting significant credit for putting out a long list of very specific, large-scale policy proposals, and as a result is being portrayed as a fast-rising challenger to leader Joe Biden in national and Iowa polls of Democratic primary voters.”
  • Urgency and wariness: “That list of sweeping proposals varies widely, including such things as eliminating the Electoral College and taking on the opioid crisis. But Warren’s massive jobs-related plans are the ones that have received the most visibility this past week. These plans clearly face some headwinds as far as public opinion is concerned. Two of the most important such obstacles are the relatively low level of urgency on the part of the American public concerning the jobs issue, and the public’s continued wariness about increasing the power of the federal government. Warren has coupled some of her dramatic plans for creating new jobs with the goal of addressing climate change, but that issue in and of itself is controversial and by no means universally accepted as an existential concern.”
  • Trump and the economy: “Trump gets majority credit for his handling of the economy, higher than his approval on any other issue. And as noted, Americans are giving the economy quite positive marks at the moment. On the other hand, the public is not giving Trump a lot of credit for his signature tax cut plan, and his use of tariffs as a weapon to attempt to fix trade problems has significant public perception issues.”
  • Read the full analysis here

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, June 15-16
VIRGINIA: Hampton Univ. CPP, May 29 – June 6 
NORTH CAROLINA: PPP (D), June 17-18 

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