LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Tuesday Trivia – Warren’s Numbers – Kentucky Guv – Texas, South Carolina

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
This week’s schedule change: Lunchtime Politics will publish tomorrow and Thursday, but will take a break Friday.

Among voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 35% 
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Beto O’Rourke: 6%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Pete Buttigieg: 4% 
Cory Booker: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This Hill-HarrisX poll has only two candidates in double digits, Biden and Sanders––and Sanders is 22 points below Biden. O’Rourke is doing better in this poll than in other recent polling (6% here vs. 3.3% in the previous three polls we reported). 
Let’s take a look at the averages in the four most recent national polls:

  • Biden: 31%
  • Sanders: 14.3%
  • Warren: 11.8%
  • Buttigieg: 7% 
  • Harris: 6.8%
  • O’Rourke: 4% 
  • Booker: 2.3%

RON’S COMMENT: This is why political analysts take plenty of antacids: The four most recent national polls are split on Warren. Two of them give her 15% and 16% (The Economist, Quinnipiac), while the other two give her 7% and 9% (Hill-HarrisX, Fox News). In this field, there is a big interpretive difference between Warren at 8% (just OK) and Warren at 15.5% (ready for takeoff)

Among voters statewide

Among Texas general election voters statewide:
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else? 
Definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump: 39% 
Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump: 11% 
Probably vote for someone else: 7%
Definitely vote for someone else 43%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows that Texas voters, at least for now, are split on re-electing Trump: 50% will definitely or probably vote for him and 50% will definitely or probably vote against him. Also note that the hard pro-Trump vote (39%) is lower than the hard anti-Trump vote (43%).
Among Texas Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 23% 
Beto O’Rourke: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 8% 
Kamala Harris: 5%
Julian Castro: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll of Texas Democrats has Biden on top with O’Rourke, Warren and Sanders fairly close behind. Note that O’Rourke and Castro are from Texas––but, combined, they’re only getting 18% of their home state’s vote.

Among voters statewide

Joe Biden: 37% 
Elizabeth Warren: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 11% 
Bernie Sanders: 9%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Cory Booker: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Another new poll in South Carolina shows Biden with a big lead. This one has Warren in second place and Buttigieg third. These numbers are not good for Sanders, who’s tied for fourth place. Biden polls over 52% of this state’s large African American constituency as compared to 28% of the state’s white voters. Among whites: Warren is second to Biden, getting 20%. Buttigieg is next at 17% and Sanders is at 11%.

Among voters statewide

Gov. Matt Bevin (R) over Andy Beshear (D): +6 (48-42)
RON’S COMMENT: GOP Gov. Bevin is being challenged this November by Democratic AG Beshear, son of a former governor. A poll in December had Beshear ahead by 8 points. If both polls are right, it shows a sizable swing to Bevin over the past six months (from -8 to +6)…. Handicappers rate the race either toss-up or lean Republican.


Who was the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Texas––and––the last Democratic presidential candidate to do so?
(See answer below)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TEXAS: UT-Austin/Texas Tribune, May 31-June 9
SOUTH CAROLINA: Charleston Post and Courier-Change Research
KENTUCKY: Gravis, June 11-12
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

Herbert Hoover. He was the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Texas (in 1928 against Al Smith).
Jimmy Carter. He was the last Democratic presidential candidate to carry Texas (in 1976 against Gerald Ford).

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