Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, June 13, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters, Morning Consult) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these three extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 29% (same as last week)
Elizabeth Warren: 18% (+6)
Bernie Sanders: 11% (-2)
Kamala Harris: 8% (-1)
Pete Buttigieg: 7% (-1)
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden runs first and Warren is second in this nationwide poll. Since last week’s poll, Warren is up 6 points and Sanders is down 3…. Note: These results are among Democrats only, which helps Warren and hurts Sanders. Among independents (some of whom will be able to vote in Democratic primaries), Sanders is first at 19%, Biden is second at 17% and Warren is third at 11%. Some of the other polls we report include Democrats and independents in a single primary tally.
- The buzz among Democrats on the Sanders vs. Warren tussle is that if the Massachusetts senator does, in fact, eclipse Sanders for second place nationally as well as in key states––which is looking increasingly possible based on today’s results––it could trigger a Sanders collapse and a shift toward Warren for three reasons: First, she’s actually a Democrat and Sanders isn’t. Second, gender––there is considerable desire on the part of many Democrats to nominate a woman. Third, Warren doesn’t have the burden of carrying the socialist label as the Vermont senator does, which could be a big problem for him in the general election. Progressives want a champion, and if it looks like Warren has a better chance to go all the way, they could move to her in heavy numbers.
- But, don’t count anything in or out yet. There is a long way to go, and the road to the nomination is cluttered with banana peels for every candidate to slip on. The debates could reshuffle the decks in ways we haven’t even considered and one or two of the candidates we’re not now mentioning could emerge.
NEVADA: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic caucusgoers statewide
Joe Biden: 36%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Nevada is an early state and could play an important role in the process. Currently, Biden is well ahead, but Warren is second and Sanders is third…. Second choice: Warren leads with 15%, Sanders is second at 14%, Biden and Harris are tied for third at 13% each.
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE AGE
Among voters nationwide
Too Old: If elected president in 2020, several candidates would be 80 years old or older while president. Do you think being 80 years old or older might make it too difficult to do the work the presidency requires, or do you think age helps candidates to have the experience and wisdom to do a good job as president?
Too difficult to do the work the presidency requires: 47%
Age helps candidates to have the experience and wisdom to do a good job as president: 30%
Not sure: 23%
RON’S COMMENT: 51% of Democrats, 44% of independents and 50% of Republicans say being 80 years old or older might make it too difficult to do the work the presidency requires. Amazingly, there is little difference by voter age on this question…. One complaint about this poll question: It should have referred to ages at the time the next president takes office, which would be mid- to-late 70s for Trump, Biden and Sanders…. When the next president is elected, Sanders will be 79, Biden will be 77, Trump will be 74 and Warren will be 71. Neither Trump nor Warren would reach 80 even if they served two terms. Sanders and Biden would become 80 in their first terms.
Too young: If elected president in 2020, several candidates would begin his or her term before reaching 40 years old. Do you think a candidate being under 40 years old might make the candidate too inexperienced to do the work the presidency requires, or do you think the candidate’s age helps him or her to have the fresh new ideas to do a good job as president?
Too inexperienced to do the work the presidency requires: 42%
Age helps candidates to have the fresh new ideas to do a good job as president: 40%
Not sure: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: 25% of Democrats, 35% of independents and 58% of Republicans say a candidate under 40 might make him or her too inexperienced…. On the Democratic roster this year, three candidates are in their 30s. Tulsi Gabbard and Eric Swalwell will be 39 and Pete Buttigieg will be 38 by Election Day. Cutting it close: Buttigieg becomes 39 the day before he’d be sworn in.
SOURCES
NEVADA: Monmouth, June 6-11
NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE AGE: The Economist/YouGov, June 9-11
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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