Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, June 11, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
MASSACHUSETTS: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Bernie Sanders: 6%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The numbers are low for every candidate in Massachusetts and the undecided is high (40%). Receiving votes from only 10% of her fellow Democrats in her home state is a particularly unimpressive showing for Warren. Six percent is also a poor showing for Sanders, indicating substantial falloff from earlier polling in the state.
WOMAN, GAY PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
If you honestly assessed yourself, how comfortable are you with a woman President of the United States?
Entirely/somewhat comfortable: 74%
Entirely/somewhat uncomfortable: 19%
Not sure: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: 86% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans say they’d be entirely or somewhat comfortable with a woman President. There is only a one point difference between men and women on this question. Keep in mind, these results may have been influenced by the current field of candidates, which does not have a woman Republican contender and multiple women Democratic contenders.
If you honestly assessed yourself, how comfortable are you with an openly gay man President of the United States?
Entirely/somewhat comfortable: 53%
Entirely/somewhat uncomfortable: 40%
Not sure: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: 68% of Democrats and 31% of Republicans say they’d be entirely or somewhat comfortable with a gay man as president. Five percent more women than men agree and 6% more whites than blacks agree. Keep in mind, these results may have been influenced by the current field of candidates.
NEW YORK STATE OF MIND
Among voters statewide
RATINGS IN NEW YORK STATE
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Chuck Schumer: 54%/40%
Andrew Cuomo: 52%/42%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 44%/36%
Donald Trump: 34%/63%
Bill de Blasio: 29%/53%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s favorable rating is higher than New York City Mayor de Blasio’s in bright blue New York State (34% vs. 29%). Trump, however, has a higher unfavorable rating (63% vs. 53%). In a head-to-head contest for president in New York State, de Blasio beats Trump 48-36. Despite the fact that Gillibrand beats Trump 58-34 in New York State, her lackluster statewide favorability ratings indicate that her Democratic nomination bid isn’t helping her back home.
CUOMO 2022 RE-ELECTION
Andrew Cuomo is in the first year of his third term––or his ninth year––as Governor of New York. Last week, he said that he is planning on running for a fourth term as Governor in 2022. Would you would you prefer that he not run for a fourth term as Governor?
Run for fourth term: 37%
Do not run for fourth term: 58%
RON’S COMMENT: Among Democrats, 48% would prefer Cuomo to run for a fourth term, while 45% do not. Among Republicans, 19% want him to run and 80% don’t. Among independents, 28% would prefer him to run and 67% do not. Latest rumor buzzing in New York: AOC may challenge Cuomo in the 2022 Democratic primary.
ISSUES IN NEW YORK STATE
Legalizing the recreational use of marijuana
Allowing undocumented immigrants to get a New York driver ́s license
Requiring parents to have their children vaccinated for diseases such as measles before the children can attend school, regardless of the parents ́ religious beliefs
UK PARTY POLITICS
Among voters in Great Britain
Political Party Preference:
Lib Dems: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: The unfolding Brexit debacle has rearranged British politics, especially now that PM Theresa May is out. This poll shows that the new Brexit Party, led by Nigel Farage, is currently running first. This new party––which stands for “restoration of Britain’s democratic sovereignty”––is made up of voters who are unhappy with the non-implementation of the 2016 referendum to leave the EU. Many of its supporters come from either the UK Independence Party (UKIP) or the Conservative Party, and some of them have pledged to stay with the new party only through the next election.
Public support from Conservative Members of Parliament for party leadership:
Boris Johnson: 64
Michael Gove: 35
Jeremy Hunt: 35
Dominic Raab: 24
Sajid Javid; 19
Matt Hancock: 14
RON’S COMMENT: Johnson holds the most pledged votes to become the new Tory leader. However, 98 Conservative MPs have not yet publicly endorsed any candidate. The first ballot will be held Thursday and, ultimately, the vote will come down to two candidates. The final results will be announced July 22.
Which state has produced the most Speakers of the U.S. House?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
WOMAN, GAY PRESIDENT: The Economist/YouGov, June 2-4
NEW YORK: Siena College Research Institute, June 2-6
UK Party Preference, YouGov/The Times, June 5-6
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
Massachusetts. It has had eight Speakers of the House. The last three speakers from Massachusetts were Tip O’Neil (D), John W. McCormack (D) and Joseph W. Martin (R).
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