LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Socialism – Trump Re-Election – All About Iowa

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, June 10, 2019

Down 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 since Friday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

Among Democratic caucus voters statewide

Joe Biden: 24% 
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Pete Buttigieg: 14% 
Kamala Harris: 7%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This Iowa poll has received quite a bit of play since it came out yesterday. It shows Biden ahead and a three-way race for second place. It also shows Biden slipping 3 points, Sanders dropping 9 points and Warren moving up 6 points since the March Des Moines Register survey…. There is a lot of other interesting data that hasn’t gotten much media coverage: 

  • Biden’s supporters are less likely to say they are “extremely enthusiastic” about their candidate than are voters for all the other candidates (29% vs. 39%).
  • Among second choice votes, Warren and Harris are running on top with 14% each, then Biden at 13%, Sanders at 11% and Buttigieg at 9%.
  • Here are candidate favorability ratings among voters who say they will attend the caucuses in person: Biden 72% favorable/24% unfavorable, Warren 71% favorable/17% unfavorable, Sanders 70% favorable/25% unfavorable and Buttigieg 61% favorable/12% unfavorable.
  • On impeachment, 48% of Iowa Democrats say “Democrats in Congress should continue with investigations, but NOT move forward on formal impeachment proceedings” and 42% say “Democrats in Congress would be shirking their constitutional duty if they do not proceed with impeachment as soon as possible.” 
  • 65% want “the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus to be a candidate for president with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump,” while 31% want “the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucus to be a candidate for president who shares your positions on major issues.” 

Among voters nationwide

Thinking about the 2020 election, do you definitely plan to vote for Donald Trump for re-election as president or do you definitely plan to vote against him? 
Definitely vote for Trump: 36%
Definitely vote against him: 51%
RON’S COMMENT: 86% of Republicans, 24% of independents, 4% of Democrats, 41% of men, 31% of women, 41% of whites and 26% of nonwhites would definitely vote for Trump. 5% of Republicans, 55% of independents and 90% of Democrats would definitely vote against Trump…. Trump’s white vote is surprisingly low and his nonwhite vote is surprisingly high in this poll…. Trump supporters will love this tidbit of data: In June 2011, 36% of voters said they would definitely vote for President Obama’s re-election in 2012, which is the same percentage Trump now receives. Now, here’s the Democratic comeback: Yeah, but 43% said they would definitely vote against Obama, compared to 51% who would definitely vote against Trump…. Also worth noting: Only 14% of Democratic voters say they’ve made up their minds on which Democrat they will vote for, while 84% say they haven’t. That means anything can happen in the Democratic nomination contest. Remember the kaleidoscope theory of nomination battles? You heard it here first!

Among voters nationwide

Findings and excerpts from a recent Harris poll report for Axios on HBO:

  • 4 in 10 Americans say they would prefer living in a socialist country over a capitalist one.
  • 55% of women 18–54 years old would “prefer to live in a socialist country than a capitalist country.” But a majority of men prefer to live in a capitalist country.
  • What does socialism mean? The American public has “varying levels of agreement on what constitutes a socialist political system.” This is what they say constitutes a socialist system:
    • Universal health care: 76%
    • Tuition free education: 72%
    • Living wage: 68%
    • State-controlled economy: 66%
    • State control and regulation of private property: 61%
    • High taxes for the rich: 60%
    • State-controlled media and communication: 57%
    • Strong environmental regulations: 56%
    • High public spending: 55%
    • Government “democratizes” private businesses—that is, gives workers control over them—to the greatest extent possible: 52%
    • System dependent on dictatorship: 49
    • Workers own and control their places of employment: 48%
    • Democratically elected government: 46%

By Ron Faucheux

Is Donald Trump the modern-day Earl Long?
A three-time Louisiana governor, Long mastered the art of political ridicule seven decades ago by weaponizing nicknames. The hilarious names Long pinned on his rivals—and the rollicking stories he told about them—riveted audiences bored by puffed-up rhetoric.
While Long’s stunts may be remembered as silly hijinks, there was a sly, often deadly serious, purpose to his technique. He used it to get voters to laugh at his foes and to put them on the defensive—a place politicians never want to be. Tucked within Long’s jests were razor-sharp attacks aimed at exploiting opposition weaknesses—hidden swords inside a pea-patch cloak.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS: Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom, June 2-5
TRUMP RE-ELECTION: NPR/PBS/Marist Poll, May 31-June 4
SOCIALISM IN THE U.S.: Harris poll report for Axios on HBO
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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