Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, June 7, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Ipsos/Reuters) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 46% (-3 since last week)
Trump: 41% (+2 since last week)
It depends: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: This is good news for Trump. The “generic” Democrat was ahead by 10 points last week, but has now slipped to 5 points. Trump is getting 81% of Republicans and the Democrat is getting 86% of Democrats. Trump wins independents by 3 points, men by 3 points and loses women by 10 points.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 36%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This trial heat shows about the same as others have shown, with Biden, Sanders and Warren in the top three slots. These numbers are based only on registered Democrats. When independents are added, Biden moves down to 31%, Sanders slips to 14% and Warren falls to 9%.
CONSIDERATION FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Which candidate or candidates are you considering voting for in the Democratic Presidential primary or caucus in your state in 2020? (Select all that apply)
Joe Biden: 53%
Elizabeth Warren: 41%
Kamala Harris: 40%
Bernie Sanders: 39%
Pete Buttigieg: 32%
Cory Booker: 22%
Beto O’Rourke: 21%
Amy Klobuchar: 11%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 10%
Julian Castro: 9%
Andrew Yang: 6%
Bill de Blasio: 6%
Tulsi Gabbard: 6%
Jay Inslee: 5%
Eric Swalwell: 5%
Steve Bullock: 4%
Michael Bennet: 4%
John Hickenlooper: 4%
Tim Ryan: 4%
John Delaney: 2%
Seth Moulton: 1%
Mike Gravel: 1%
Wayne Messam: 1%
Marianne Williamson: 1%
None of them: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: This is an unusual question that provides a useful reading of candidate acceptability and potential. It allows multiple answers, which is why the total far exceeds 100%…. The poll shows that a majority of Democratic primary voters are considering voting for Biden. Warren ranks second at 41%, Harris third at 40%, Sanders fourth at 39% and Buttigieg fifth at 32%…. Notice that Booker edges O’Rourke on consideration…. Looking at the internal data, 56% of women, 48% of men, 36% of 18-29-year-olds, 76% of 65-year-olds and older, 52% of whites, 67% of blacks and 41% of Hispanics are considering Biden…. 45% of women, 36% of men, 34% of 18-29-year-olds, 52% of 65-year-olds and older, 49% of whites, 31% of blacks and 26% of Hispanics are considering Warren…. 42% of women, 38% of men, 27% of 18-29-year-olds, 61% of 65-year-olds and older, 44% of whites, 37% of blacks and 28% of Hispanics are considering Harris.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people?
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Donald Trump: 45%/53%
Mike Pence: 47%/46%
Nancy Pelosi: 42%/50%
Chuck Schumer: 33%/48%
Kevin McCarthy: 25%/33%
Mitch McConnell: 31%/52%
Robert Mueller: 48%/39%
William Barr: 37%/41%
RON’S COMMENT: Pence and Mueller are the only two public figures tested here who have net positive ratings. Everybody else is net negative. Also notice that Pelosi has the highest favorable rating of any Congressional leader, at 42%…. Over the last two weeks ago, Mueller’s ratings have deteriorated from 50%/35% to 48%/39%. Barr’s ratings have improved, going from 33%/43% to 37%/41%.
TRUMP AND WAR
Among voters nationwide
How likely do you think it is that Donald Trump will get us into a war?
Likely: 53%
Unlikely: 37%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of the electorate––including 77% of Democrats, 44% of independents and 27% of Republicans––think it’s likely Trump will get the U.S. into war.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Ipsos/Reuters, May 29-June 5
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, CONSIDERATION FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, TRUMP AND WAR, FAVORABILITY RATINGS: The Economist/YouGov, June 2-4
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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