LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Border Crisis? – Tillis Vulnerable? – North Carolina Polling

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, June 5, 2019


RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Morning Consult, CNN) to 49% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters statewide

Among Democratic primary voters:
Joe Biden: 39% 
Bernie Sanders: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 15%
Pete Buttigieg: 8% 
Kamala Harris: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Good showing for Warren in North Carolina, straddling between second and third place. Buttigieg leads the single-digit candidates. Among whites, Biden’s lead narrows––29% for him, 25% for Sanders and 20% for Warren. Among blacks, Biden’s lead expands––58% for him, 14% for Sanders and 7% for Harris…. Wow, look at this: 47% of Biden’s voters, 59% of Sanders’ voters, 78% of Harris’ voters, 80% of Warren’s voters and 88% of Buttigieg’s voters say there is a chance they could still change their minds and vote for someone else.
Among general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +12 (56-44)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (54-46)
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Elizabeth Warren (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (50-50)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +2 (51-49) 
RON’S COMMENT: These general election numbers are not so good for Trump, who won the state in 2016 by nearly 4 points. In this poll, he’s losing to Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg, ties Warren and edges Harris. Though it’s now considered to be a swing state, North Carolina has voted Republican in nine of the last ten elections…. This poll report explains that “if the election comes down to issues, the Democratic Presidential candidate might have a more difficult time crafting a general election message, as both Republicans and Independents [in North Carolina] rank the economy as the most important issue, while Democratic voters rank it third behind healthcare and social issues.”

Among voters statewide

Erica Smith (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +7 (46-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Republican Sen. Tillis starts off his re-election bid in trouble, according to this poll. Smith is an African American state senator and an announced candidate for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination. Trevor Fuller, a Mecklenburg County Commissioner, has also announced and former state Sen. Eric Mansfield is looking at it…. Tillis may also have GOP opposition in the primary. He won the seat in 2014 by a narrow 1.5 points…. This is clearly a race to watch.

Among voters statewide

Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): +14 (52-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Cooper starts his re-election bid with a solid lead over GOP Lt. Gov. Forest, the current frontrunner for the Republican nomination…. Some observers think former GOP Gov. Pat McCrory may yet jump into the gubernatorial race against his old foe. Cooper defeated McCrory for re-election in 2016 by 10,000 votes out of 4.7 million cast. If McCrory doesn’t run for governor, he may be a contender for the Senate in 2022 when Sen Richard Burr (R) will retire.

Among voters nationwide

Do you think there is a growing humanitarian and security crisis at our border with Mexico, or is this mainly a manufactured political crisis ahead of the 2020 elections?
Growing humanitarian and security crisis: 58%
Mainly a manufactured political crisis: 42%
RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters agree that there is a growing humanitarian and security crisis at our border with Mexico. These results mean that Republicans are winning the border crisis message fight.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NORTH CAROLINA: Emerson College, MAY 31-JUNE 3
BORDER CRISIS? Harvard-Harris, May 29-30
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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