Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, June 4, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = Hill-HarrisX / Morning Consult / CNN = Average %
Joe Biden: 35%/38%/32% = 35%
Bernie Sanders: 16%/19%/18% = 18%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%/10%/7% = 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%/7%/5% = 7%
Kamala Harris: 4%/7%/8% = 6%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%/4%/5% = 4%
Cory Booker: 3%/3%/3% = 3%
Julian Castro: */1%/2% = 1%
Amy Klobuchar: 1%/1%/2% = 1%
Candidates with 1% or less in all three polls not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The average of these three new polls puts Biden on top, Sanders second, with Warren and Buttigieg about tied for third place. As we’ve said before, the race appears to be stuck in place, with Biden and Sanders leading and Warren, Buttigieg and Harris jockeying for third place. Expect more action once the debates start…. The CNN poll, however, shows some movement since a month ago. It has Biden dropping 7 points, Sanders up 3, Harris up 3, Warren down 1, Buttigieg down 2, O’Rourke down 1, Booker up 1 and Castro up 1.
- HOW WOMEN CANDIDATES DO BY GENDER: So far, Democratic women voters have not coalesced around a woman candidate. Harris gets 4% of women and 4% of men in the Hill-HarrisX poll. Warren gets 4% of women and 7% of men. Amy Klobuchar gets 1% of women and 0% of men. Kirsten Gillibrand and Tulsi Gabbard each get less than 1% of both men and women. Also of note: The Morning Consult poll finds that the percentage of Democrats who say women’s issues are their top concern has jumped to 14% over the past month.
- HOW BLACK CANDIDATES DO BY RACE: So far, Democratic African American voters have not coalesced around an African American candidate. Harris gets 5% of whites and 4% of blacks in the Hill-HarrisX poll. Booker gets 3% of whites and 2% of blacks. Wayne Messam gets less than 1% of both.
PREFERENCE FOR TRUMP’S PRIORITIES
Among voters nationwide
Which of the following should be the top priority for President Trump?
Stimulating American jobs: 20%
Passing an infrastructure spending bill: 16%
Building a wall between the United States and Mexico: 12%
Renegotiating trade deals with other countries: 11%
Repealing and replacing Obamacare: 10%
Reducing the total amount of immigrants allowed in the United States: 10%
Passing a comprehensive tax reform bill: 8%
Destroying ISIS: 7%
Expanding family leave policies: 5%
Undoing the Iran deal: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters want Trump to focus on jobs and infrastructure as the top two issues. Following those are: building the wall, renegotiating trade deals, repealing and replacing Obamacare and reducing the amount of immigrants…. There were quite a few issues left out of this question. Two examples: dealing with the budget deficit and reforming the operations of government.
PARTISAN AFFILIATION AND LABELS
Among voters nationwide
[ASKED OF REPUBLICANS ONLY] Would you call your self a strong Republican or a not-so-strong Republican?
Strong Republican: 59%
Not-so-strong Republican: 41%
[ASKED OF REPUBLICANS ONLY] Which of the following labels do you most identify with as a Republican?
Trump Republican: 20%
Conservative Republican: 15%
Christian Conservative: 14%
Reagan Republican: 12%
Moderate Republican: 10%
Fiscal Conservative: 6%
Compassionate Conservative: 6%
Bush Republican: 3%
Liberal Republican 2%
Social Conservative: 2%
Heartland Republican: 2%
Nationalist: 2%
Populist: 1%
Alt-Right *
Libertarian *
RON’S COMMENT: You can talk about populism, nationalism and libertarianism within the Republican Party, but few Republican voters identify with those labels as primary identifiers. However, 43% of Republicans identify as conservatives of one stripe or another and 20% identify as Trump Republicans. Only 12% regard themselves as a moderate or a liberal Republican.
[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS ONLY] Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not-so-strong Democrat?
Strong Democrat: 63%
Not-so-strong Democrat: 37%
[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS ONLY] Which of the following labels do you most identify with as a Democrat?
Obama Democrat: 18%
Moderate Democrat: 16%
Liberal Democrat: 14%
Clinton Democrat: 9%
Environmentalist: 7%
Progressive: 6%
Conservative Democrat: 5%
Socialist/Democratic Socialist: 5%
Fiscally Conservative Democrat: 3%
Socially Conservative Democrat: 2%
Nationalist: 2%
Libertarian: 2%
Trump Democrat: 1
Antifa: 1%
Populist *
Communist *
RON’S COMMENT: Fewer Democrats label themselves liberal, progressive or Socialist (25%) than moderate, conservative or as a Trump Democrat (27%). Also note that there are almost as many Obama Democrats (18%) as there are Trump Republicans (20%).
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which U.S. president and first lady spoke mostly French among themselves in the White House?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Hill-Harris X, June 1-2; Morning Consult, May 27-June 2; CNN, May 28-31
PARTISAN AFFILIATION AND LABELS, TRUMP’S PRIORITIES:Harvard-Harris, May 29-30
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Elizabeth and James Monroe. They spoke mostly French in the White House. Monroe had French Huguenot ancestors, studied French in his youth and served as U.S. Minister to France before becoming president.
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