Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, May 30, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 4`% (CBS) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 38% (-1 from last week)
Bernie Sanders: 20% (+1)
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 7% (+1)
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like the field is stuck in place for the time being and may not shift much until the debates…. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), it’s Biden 42%, Sanders 20%, Warren 7%, Buttigieg 7%, Harris 5%, Booker 3% and O’Rourke 3%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Open-ended choices:
Joe Biden: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
SOUTH CAROLINA: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters statewide
Open-ended choices:
Joe Biden: 37%
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden gets 33% of South Carolina whites and 40% of blacks. Among blacks, Sanders and Harris are tied for second place with 8% each.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
Democratic candidate: 49% (+1 since last week)
Trump: 39% (+1 since last week)
It depends: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: The “generic” Democrat was ahead by 10 points last week and this week. Trump is getting 85% of Republicans and the Democrat is getting 87% of Democrats. Trump wins independents by 3 points and men by 11 points, but loses women by 18 points.
STUDENT LOANS, FREE TUITION
Among voters nationwide
Loan forgiveness: Do you support or oppose a proposal for the federal government to cancel up to $50,000 in student loan debt for all individuals whose annual household income is below $100,000?
Support: 58%
Oppose: 33%
Not sure: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: 77% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans favor cancelling up to $50,000 in student loan debt when annual household income is below $100,000.
Free tuition: Do you support or oppose a proposal for the federal government to partner with state governments in order to provide tuition free [for] 2-year and 4-year college degrees at public universities?
Support: 61%
Oppose: 31%
Not sure: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: 83% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans favor free tuition at public colleges.
Worth it? [ASKED OF ALL ADULTS WHO HAVE OR HAD A STUDENT LOAN] Thinking about your current situation, was taking on student loan debt worth it for you, or not worth it?
Worth it: 45%
Not worth it: 36%
Not sure: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: Less than half of adults who have had a student loan say that taking on student loan debt was worth it for them. 52% of men, 39% of women, 49% of whites, 40% of blacks, 36% of Hispanics, 45% of Democrats, 39% of independents and 53% of Republicans say it was worth it.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION; Morning Consult, May 20-26
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, STUDENT LOANS, FREE TUITION; The Economist/YouGov, May 26-28
NEW HAMPSHIRE, SOUTH CAROLINA: Tel Opinion (R), May 20-24
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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