Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, May 24, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (CBS) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. REMEMBER THOSE WHO HAVE DIED IN AMERICA’S MILITARY SERVICE. SEE YOU BACK TUESDAY.
WEEKLY STATS: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Averages for top five candidates this week
Average national vote %:
Biden: 35% (-1 from previous week)
Sanders: 16% (-5)
Warren: 10% (+1)
Harris: 8.3% (+0.6)
Buttigieg: 5.8% (-0.9)
RON’S COMMENT: Changes––This week’s averages show Sanders dropping the most from the previous week and Warren improving the most, although her increase was slight…Bottom line––Biden maintains a strong, stable lead. Sanders’ position in second place endures, but seems increasingly shaky. The action appears to be between third and fifth place, where fluctuations can make or break candidacies. All other Democratic contenders are stuck in the cellar, struggling to gain traction.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Kamala Harris: 11%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This Monmouth poll shows a tightening between second, third and fourth places…. It also finds that 75% of Democrats say it’s important for their nominee to “build on Obama’s legacy”…. Among voters who live in states with primaries on or before Super Tuesday (March 3), Biden still leads but his strength slips and Harris moves up: Biden 26%, Sanders 14%, Harris 14%, Warren 9%, Buttigieg 6% and Klobuchar 5%. Of course, California is in this group of states and that’s boosting Harris…. Note: This poll is included in our weekly summary stats, above.
ELIZABETH WARREN
Among voters nationwide
Would you say Elizabeth Warren is…
Very liberal: 42%
Liberal: 23%
Moderate/other: 18%
Not sure: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: While 65% of all voters regard Warren as “very liberal” or “liberal,” 55% of Democrats do.
Do you think Elizabeth Warren…
Says what she believes: 43%
Says what she thinks people want to hear: 40%
Not sure: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: While 43% of all voters think that Warren says what she believes, 66% of Democrats do.
How much do you think Elizabeth Warren cares about the needs and problems of people like you?
A lot/some: 46%
Not much/not at all: 41%
RON’S COMMENT: While 46% of all voters say Warren cares about the needs and problems of people, 74% of Democrats do.
Regardless of whether you agree with her, do you like or dislike Elizabeth Warren as a person?
Like a lot/somewhat: 38%
Neither like nor dislike: 17%
Dislike somewhat/a lot: 30%
RON’S COMMENT: While 38% of all voters like Warren, 63% of Democrats do. Only 5% of Democrats dislike her. But, among independent voters, only 18% like her, while 26% don’t.
STOCK MARKET
Among adults nationwide
Looking ahead, are you generally optimistic or pessimistic about the condition of the stock market over the next twelve months?
Optimistic: 56%
Pessimistic: 29%
Don’t know: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: All politics, all the time: 79% of Republicans, 39% of Democrats and 54% of independents are optimistic about the stock market.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Monmouth, May 16-20.
STOCK MARKET: CBS News, May 17-20
WARREN: The Economist/YouGov, May 18-21
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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