Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, May 22, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 2 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday), which is 12 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 35%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 13%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Cory Booker: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is good news for Warren. She’s been fighting for third place in most recent polls, but here, she’s in contention for second place. Warren is getting 30% of the Democratic Party’s most liberal wing (overcoming Sanders, who’s getting 22%). She’s also getting 14% of men, 13% of women, 16% of whites and 8% of nonwhites. Warren is doing better with younger Democrats than older ones, receiving 18% of those under 50 and 9% of those 50 and older. Her best economic demographic is middle class voters with incomes between $50-100k, where she’s capturing 18%…. Is this poll an aberration or the start of a trend to Warren? We have to wait for other surveys to find out…. LOOK AT THIS: Among Democrats who are paying the closest attention to the presidential race, Biden leads with 42%, Warren is second with 15%, Buttigieg and Harris are tied for third with 9% and Sanders is fifth with 8%.
ALABAMA ABORTION LAW
Among voters nationwide
Do you support or oppose a new Alabama law that prohibits almost all abortions but makes exceptions only for the health of the mother and for fetuses with “fatal anomalies” that make them unlikely to survive outside the womb. There are no exceptions for cases of rape and incest.
Support: 30%
Oppose: 57%
Neither/not sure: 13%
RON’S COMMENT: 10% of Democrats, 25% of independents and 52% of Republicans support the Alabama law. On the flip side: 77% of Democrats, 47% of independents and 30% of Republicans oppose it. Also, more women than men oppose the law by 9 points.
TRUMP AND IRAN
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is toward Iran?
Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: 79% of Republicans, 4% of Democrats, 35% of independents, 41% of men and 34% of women approve of Trump’s handling of Iran.
FAVORITE U.S. AIRLINES
Among adults nationwide
Thinking of airlines operating in the United States, which of the following, if any, is your preferred airline for personal travel?
Southwest: 21%
Delta: 14%
American: 11%
United: 8%
Jet Blue: 5%
Alaska Airlines: 3%
Frontier: 1%
Virgin America: 1%
Spirit Air: 1%
Don’t have a preferred airline: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: Southwest wins the airlines popularity contest with Delta second…. Safety vs. profits: This poll also finds that 50% of U.S. adults believe airlines prioritize profits over passenger safety while only 20% say airlines prioritize passenger safety over profits.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, TRUMP AND IRAN: Quinnipiac, May 16-20
FAVORITE U.S. AIRLINES: Ipsos/Reuters, April 30-May 2
ALABAMA ABORTION LAW: The economist/YouGov, May 18-21
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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