LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump, Trade and China – Prez Candidates Rated – Congress Approval Up Slightly

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, May 17, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 46% (Fox News). Without these two extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide

Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 35% 
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 6% 
Kamala Harris: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
John Delaney: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
Jay Inslee: 1%
Tim Ryan: 1%
Marianne Williamson: 1%
Candidates with less than 1% not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Among Democrats: 

  • Biden gets 36% of women, 34% of men, 33% of whites and 38% of nonwhites. 
  • Sanders gets 15% of women, 19% of men, 18% of whites and 14% of nonwhites. 
  • Warren gets 9% of women, 8% of men, 11% of whites and 5% of nonwhites. 
  • Buttigieg gets 7% of women, 6% of men, 9% of whites and 1% of nonwhites. 
  • Harris gets 6% of women, 5% of men, 5% of whites and 6% of nonwhites.
  • Among whites with college degrees, it’s Biden 27%, Warren 14%, Sanders 13% and Buttigieg 12%.

Among all general election voters
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +11 (49-38)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (46-41)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (43-41)
Kamala Harris (D) and Pres. Donald Trump (R): even (41-41)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +1 (41-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Three out of five Democrats tested beat Trump in this Fox News poll, one ties him and one loses by a point. In the Biden vs. Trump trial heat, Biden wins women by 20 points, nonwhites by 47 points, voters under 45 years old by 18 points and independents by 7 points. Trump wins voters 45 and older by 4 points, white men by 11 points and whites without college degrees by 7 points.

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Pete Buttigieg (D): 34%/31% (+3)
Joe Biden (D): 47%/46% (+1)
Kamala Harris (D): 39%/39% (even)
Elizabeth Warren (D): 42%/45% (-3)
William Weld (R): 16%/19% (-3)
Michael Bennet (D): 15%/18% (-3)
Bernie Sanders (D): 44%/49% (-5)
Donald Trump (R): 44%/54% (-10)
Howard Schultz (I): 13%/32% (-19) 
Bill de Blasio (D): 20%/40% (-20)
RON’S COMMENT: Remember, these ratings are among the entire electorate and not just party primary voters….Buttigieg and Biden are the only two candidates with net positive ratings among all voters. Harris is even…. New presidential candidate Bill de Blasio, mayor of New York, has the highest net negative rating among all voters of -20. Among only Democrats, he’s 28% favorable/21% unfavorable…. Howard Schultz, the former Starbucks CEO and prospective independent candidate for president, is reportedly rethinking a candidacy. He has been sidelined in recent weeks with back surgery. This poll shows Schultz’s overall rating to be decidedly negative. Even among fellow-independents, he’s 12% favorable/20% unfavorable…. Note: This list is limited to the two GOP candidates, the top five Democratic candidates and the top independent prospect. It also includes newly announced Democratic candidates.

Among voters nationwide

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the United States Congress is handling its job? 
Approve: 20%
Disapprove: 59%
Neither: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: A month ago, 16% of voters approved of the job Congress was doing and 64% disapproved. Since then, it’s slightly improved…. Currently, 25% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans approve. Only 13% of independents do.

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling foreign trade? 
Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 52%
RON’S COMMENT: 9% of Democrats and 83% of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling foreign trade.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling China? 
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 50%
RON’S COMMENT: 12% of Democrats and 81% of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of China.
Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump imposing 25% tariffs on certain products from China? 
Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: 12% of Democrats and 76% of Republicans approve of Trump’s imposing the 25% tariffs.
Do you think that trade with China is more of an opportunity or more of a threat? 
More of an opportunity: 39% 
More of a threat: 22%
Neither an opportunity nor a threat: 23% 
Not sure: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: No voter majority has coalesced on either side of this issue.
Do you think China has a fair trade policy or an unfair trade policy with the United States? 
Fair: 16%
Unfair: 54%
Not sure: 30%
RON’S COMMENT: Politically, this is a complicated issue­––but a clear majority of voters believe China’s trade policy with the U.S. is not fair. Few voters say it is.
How serious an economic threat do you think China poses to the United States? 
An immediate and serious economic threat to the U.S.: 19%
A somewhat serious economic threat to the U.S.: 43% 
A minor economic threat to the U.S.: 20%
Not an economic threat to the U.S.: 6%
Not sure: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: 62% of voters believe China is a serious threat at some level to the U.S. Only 26% say China is either a minor threat or not a threat at all. This reinforces the assessment that Joe Biden’s comment that China is not “competition” with the U.S. could come back to bite him, especially in the general election.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: Fox News, May 11-14

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