LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Willingness To Vote For Certain Kinds Of Candidates – National Numbers

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Politico/Morning Consult) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide

Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 33% 
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Kamala Harris: 10%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Pete Buttigieg: 8% 
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Julian Castro: 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 2%
Cory Booker: 1%
Amy Klobuchar: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Mike Gravel: 1%
Michael Bennet: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
Seth Moulton: 1%
Candidates with less than 1% not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The last three national polls we reported showed Biden with an average vote of 42%. This Emerson poll has him much lower, at 33%. It also has the margin between him and Sanders much tighter. Since this is the newest poll we’ve seen, we don’t know yet whether it’s simply an aberration or the first sign of a trend…. Anyway, this survey finds a three-way fight for third place, with Harris, Warren and Buttigieg in the hunt. O’Rourke struggles to remain a player…. Last month, Emerson’s numbers were also different from other polls. They had Biden ahead 29-24. Given that, this new poll is an indication of Biden momentum…. FLUIDITY OF VOTE: 56% of Democratic primary voters say there is “a chance they could change their mind and vote for another candidate.” The poll report says that “Biden and Sanders have more loyal supporters, as 52% and 54% of their voters say they will definitely vote for the top two candidates, while only 33% of Harris voters, 27% of Buttigieg and 20% of Warren voters plan to definitely stick with their preferred candidate.”
Among Republican voters nationwide
Donald Trump over Bill Weld: +72 (86-14)
RON’S COMMENT: There is very little appetite among Republican voters to replace Trump as their party’s nominee.
Among all general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (54-46)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (54-46)
Beto O’Rourke (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (51-48)
Kamala Harris (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Pete Buttigieg (D) over Donald Trump (R): even (50-50)
RON’S COMMENT: Five of the six Democrats tested against Trump beat him and one ties.

Among adults nationwide

Between now and the 2020 political conventions, there will be discussion about the qualifications of presidential candidates­­––their education, age, religion, race and so on. If your party nominated a generally well-qualified person for president who happened to be _____, would you vote for that person? 
Would be willing to vote for a candidate who is…
Black: 96% (+4 since 2015)
Hispanic: 95% (+4)
Catholic: 95% (+2)
Woman: 94% (+2)
Jewish: 93% (+2)
Evangelical Christian: 80% (+7)
Gay or Lesbian: 76% (+2)
Under 40 years old: 71%
Muslim: 66% (+6)
Over 70 years old: 63%
Atheist: 60% (+2)
Socialist: 47% (no change)
RON’S COMMENT: The percentage of Americans willing to vote for a Jewish president has increased from 46% in 1939 to 93% now…. The percentage willing to vote for a gay president has gone up from 26% in 1978 to 76% now…. BY PARTY: It should be noted that 74% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans would be willing to vote for a socialist; 71% of Democrats and 92% of Republicans would be willing to vote for an Evangelical Christian; 83% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans would be willing to vote for a gay president.


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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENT: Emerson College, May 10-13
GALLUP: Gallup, April 17-30
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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