Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, May 14, 2019

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Emerson, Reuters, Morning Consult) to 49% (Rasmussen). The fifth poll had it at 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating. That 6-point spread is one of the lowest we’ve ever recorded for Trump.

NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 39% (-1 from last week)
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Kamala Harris: 8% (+1)
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Pete Buttigieg: 6% 
Beto O’Rourke: 5%
Cory Booker: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2% (-1)
Julian Castro: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Michael Bennet: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Jay Inslee: 1% (+1)
Tim Ryan: 1%
Candidates with less than 1% not listed
 
RON’S COMMENT: Not much change in this poll from last week. Harris is the only major candidate who went up, and that was only slightly …. AGE: Sanders beats Biden 33-24 among 18-29-year-olds, while Biden stomps among those 65 and older, 52-9. In February, Sanders was capturing 46% of young voters, now he’s down to 33%…. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 42%, then Sanders 22% and Warren 9%…. SOCIAL MEDIA: Among daily Twitter users, Biden leads with 32%, Sanders is second with 20% and Warren is third at 11%…. Among daily Facebook users, Biden leads with 40%, Sanders is second with 20% and Warren is third at 8%…. Among daily Snapchat users, Biden leads with 30%, Sanders is second with 29% and O’Rourke is third at 8%…. Among daily Instagram users, Biden leads with 33% and Sanders is second with 25%. Warren and Harris are tied for third at 8%.

ARIZONA: SENATE 2020
Among voters statewide

Sen. Martha McSally (R) over Mark Kelly (D): +1 (45-44)
 
RON’S COMMENT: This will be the most interesting Senate race of 2020. It could also be the closest…. Democrat Kelly wins women by 2 points and Republican McSally wins men by 4 points. Kelly leads Maricopa County by 5 points, a margin he needs to widen. McSally wins independents by 2 points…. McSally’s personal rating is a respectable 51% favorable/40% unfavorable. She has a positive rating of 57% among independents, which gives her a solid footing in this red-leaning swing state. Kelly rates 42% favorable/20% unfavorable. He clearly needs to get his name ID up, but 20% is a low negative rating in these polarized times, and that works to his benefit…. McSally ran a strong, but losing, race for the Senate in 2018. An Air Force combat veteran, she was appointed to fill John McCain’s Senate vacancy. Kelly is an astronaut, naval aviator and husband of former U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, the shooting victim and gun control advocate.

WHAT DEMOCRATS THINK OF BERNIE
Among Democrats nationwide

Would you say Bernie Sanders is… 
 
Very liberal: 42%
Liberal: 25%
Moderate: 10%
 
RON’S COMMENT: Most Democrats think of Sanders as being “very liberal,” although a substantial number view him as either “liberal” or “moderate”…. Despite the fact that Sanders has dropped in most polls in recent weeks, a strong majority of Democrats continue to think well of him. See the following results….
 
Do you think Bernie Sanders… 
 
Says what he believes: 68% 
Says what he thinks people want to hear: 20% 

RON’S COMMENT: Few politicians would do this well on this question.
 
How much do you think Bernie Sanders cares about the needs and problems of people like you? 
 
Cares a lot: 48%
Cares some: 30%
Not much: 7%
Doesn’t care at all: 6%
 
RON’S COMMENT: A total of 78% of Democrats think Sanders cares about people like them to some degree.
 
Regardless of whether you agree with him, do you like or dislike Bernie Sanders as a person? 
 
Like a lot: 34%
Like somewhat: 30%
Neither like nor dislike: 19%
Dislike somewhat: 6%
Dislike a lot: 5%
 
RON’S COMMENT: A total of 64% of Democrats like Sanders, while 11% dislike him.
 
Would you say Bernie Sanders is a strong or a weak leader? 
 
Very strong: 28%
Somewhat strong: 51%
Somewhat weak: 15%
Very weak: 7%
 
RON’S COMMENT: A total of 79% of Democrats see Sanders as a strong leader.
 
Do you think Bernie Sanders is honest and trustworthy, or not? 
 
Honest and trustworthy: 72%
Not honest and trustworthy: 10%

RON’S COMMENT: A big majority of Democrats view Sanders as honest.

TUESDAY TRIVIA

Who was the last Republican to win a U.S. Senate seat in Vermont?

(see answer below)

POLITICAL BOOKSHELF

TRY COMMON SENSE: Replacing the Failed Ideologies of Right and Left
By Philip K. Howard
In this brief and powerful book, Philip K. Howard attacks the failed ideologies of both parties and proposes a radical simplification of government to re-empower Americans in their daily choices. Howard shows how America can push the reset button and create simpler frameworks focused on public goals where officials—prepare for the shock—are actually accountable for getting the job done. Purchase here

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, May 6-12
ARIZONA: OH PREDICTIVE INSIGHTS, MAY 1-2
SANDERS: The Economist/YouGov, May 5-7
 
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
 
TRIVIA ANSWER
 
Jim Jeffords. He was elected to the Senate as a Republican in 1988, 1994 and 2000. In 2001, he dropped his GOP party affiliation and became an independent who caucused with Democrats. He did not seek re-election in 2006. He was replaced by Sen. Bernie Sanders, also an independent who caucuses with Democrats. Jeffords died in 2014. 
More trivia: Between the 1850s and the 1970s, both of Vermont’s U.S. senators were Republicans.

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