LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Louisiana – Baltimore – New Hampshire – Arizona – Hill Ratings

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, May 10, 2019

Same as Wednesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters, Morning Consult) to 49% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll pegs it at 45%, same as the average…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Wednesday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters statewide

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (49-44)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +5 (47-42)
Donald Trump (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +6 (46-40)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +9 (48-39) 
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +9 (46-37)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +9 (46-37) 
RON’S COMMENT: This Arizona poll is good news for Biden, but it’s not such good news for Democrats in general. In 2016, Trump won the state by a 3.5-point margin. Here, except for Biden, Trump is beating five Democrats by margins ranging from 5 to 9 points…. In February, this same poll had Biden and Trump tied at 46-46…. Biden is winning 18% of the Republican vote and is carrying Maricopa County by 10 points. Republicans have won Arizona in 16 of the last 17 presidential elections…. Now that California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado are solid blue or trending blue, Democrats expect Arizona to be the next domino in the west to fall in their favor. This poll shows that may not be such an easy task.

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 36% 
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 9% 
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Andrew Yang: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Tim Ryan: 1%
Candidates with less than 1% not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s showing is particularly impressive in New Hampshire because he’s running against two candidates (Sanders and Warren) who represent neighboring states in the Senate. Sanders was leading in one New Hampshire poll as recently as three weeks ago. In 2016, Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in the state by 22 points. A year ago, Warren was running first, based on a Suffolk poll…. This survey indicates a three-way fight for third place, with Buttigieg the slight leader. O’Rourke has fallen from the 5-6% range to 2% over the last couple of months. Booker and Klobuchar show no traction…. This poll finds more than two-thirds of Democrats are focused on beating Trump rather than nominating a candidate they agree with who would have a harder time winning the general election…. Also: The top issue for Democrats is healthcare. Eight-out-of-ten think it’s important they nominate a candidate who supports Medicare-for-all. Additionally, more than seven-out-of-ten Democrats think it’s important they nominate a candidate who will build on Obama’s legacy.

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Mike Pence: 43%/50%
Nancy Pelosi: 40%/52%
Chuck Schumer: 33%/47%
Kevin McCarthy: 21%/32%
Mitch McConnell: 28%/52%
RON’S COMMENT: Among fellow Republicans, Pence is 77%/14%, McCarthy is 31%/23% and McConnell is 46%/32%…. Among fellow Democrats, Pelosi is 69%/20% and Schumer is 56%/22%.

Among voters statewide

Gov. John Bel Edwards (D): 38%
Ralph Abraham (R): 23%
Eddie Rispone (R): 7%
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) over Ralph Abraham (R): +4 (40-36)
Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) over Eddie Rispone (R): +13 (41-28)
RON’S COMMENT: Edwards, a Democrat, is seeking re-election in a state that Trump carried in 2016 by 20 points. This poll puts the incumbent governor in the lead against lesser known opponents, although it shows him falling below the 50% bar he needs to exceed to win without a runoff…. Abraham is a GOP Congressman from north Louisiana and Rispone is a businessman…. Edwards is seen as the favorite among political observers to ultimately win the race, but the big question is whether he can do it without a potentially risky runoff. This poll reinforces the assessment that a runoff is possible, even though the incumbent beats the field 38-30…. The Edwards camp reportedly scoffed at this survey, calling it a “fantasy poll commissioned by vocal opponents of the governor”…. If none of the candidates in the October 12 open primary receive a majority, there will be a runoff in November…. President Trump’s job rating in Louisiana is 54% approve/37% disapprove.

Among voters citywide

If next year’s Democratic primary election for Mayor of Baltimore were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Sheila Dixon, Marilyn Mosby, Thiru Vignarajah, and Jack Young? 
Sheila Dixon: 23%
Jack Young: 19% 
Marilyn Mosby: 18%
Thiru Vignarajah: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: Dixon is a former mayor and Young has been serving as acting mayor since Catherine Pugh resigned the job…. The poll found, and not surprisingly, that 57% of Baltimore voters believe things are worse off than they were 10 years ago, and only 15% say they’re better. Lopsided majorities are also unhappy with the city’s school system (73%) and attempts to reduce crime (83%).

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ARIZONA: OH Predictive Insights, May 1-2
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Monmouth, May 2-7
LOUISIANA; JMC/Harris, Deville & Associates, April 25-27
BALTIMORE: Gonzales, April 29-May 1

When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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