LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Tuesday Trivia – Biden Moves Up – New Hampshire, Texas Primaries

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

Among Democratic voters nationwide

% = CNN/Morning Consult 
Joe Biden: 39%/36%
Bernie Sanders: 15%/22
Elizabeth Warren: 8%/9%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%/8% 
Kamala Harris: 5%/7%
Beto O’Rourke: 6%/5%
Cory Booker: 2%/3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%/2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%/1%
Andrew Yang: 1%/2%
Julian Castro: 1%/1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%/1%
Jay Inslee: 1%/1%
Steve Bullock: – /1%
Tim Ryan: – /1%
John Delaney: – /1%
Eric Swalwell: 1%/ –
Marianne Williamson: 1%/ –
Candidates with less than 1% not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Plenty of good news for Joe Biden today…. The CNN poll shows Biden moving up 9 points since mid-March. It also has Sanders down 4, Buttigieg up 6, O’Rourke down 7 and Harris down 7…. The Morning Consult poll shows Biden jumping up 6 points over last week (30% to 36%), Sanders down 2 and Warren up 2. It also finds Buttigieg, Harris, O’Rourke and Booker down 1 each… Biden does better with Democratic women than men: He wins black women with 47%, black men with 40%, white men with 32% and white women with 36%…. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 38%, then Sanders 22% and Warren 9%.

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Joe Biden: 20% 
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 12% 
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Cory Booker: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 1%
Candidates with less than 1% not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This New Hampshire poll shows Biden leading with Sanders and Buttigieg tied for third place. Some previous polls had Sanders winning the state…. This survey also finds that 35% of Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire think Biden has the best chance to beat Trump compared to 13% for Sanders, 5% for Buttigieg and 3% for Warren.

Among voters statewide

Among Democratic primary voters in Texas:
Joe Biden: 23% 
Beto O’Rourke: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Pete Buttigieg: 8% 
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Julian Castro: 4%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
John Delaney: 1%
Mike Gravel: 1%
Cory Booker: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Candidates with less than 1% not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden edges O’Rourke in his home state of Texas, with Sanders third. These numbers are discouraging news for Castro, the former mayor of San Antonio…. O’Rourke wins Hispanic voters with 32% and ties Biden among white voters (22% each). Biden wins black voters with 40%…. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Sanders in Texas 65-33.
Among all general election voters in Texas:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (50-49)
Donald Trump (R) and Beto O’Rourke (D): even (50-50)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +2 (51-49) 
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +6 (53-47)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg (D): +8 (54-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +8 (54-46) 
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Biden edging Trump in Texas and O’Rourke tying Trump. It also finds Sanders running behind Trump by only 2 points…. Republicans have carried Texas in the last ten presidential elections. But, Democrats see a trend in their favor: In 2012 Romney carried the Lone Star State by 16 points. In 2016, Trump carried it by 9 points. In 2018, O’Rourke came within 3 points of beating Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. 


Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) has announced he will retire at the end of his current term. When was the last time Kansas elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate––1912, 1932, 1958 or 1964?
(See answer below)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: CNN, April 25-28; Morning Consult, April 22-28
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Suffolk/Boston Globe, April 25-28
TEXAS: Emerson College, April 25-28

When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
1932 was the last time Kansas elected a Democratic U.S. senator.
Democrat George McGill was elected to the Senate in 1930 to fill an unexpired term. He won re-election in 1932, but was defeated in 1938. Every senator from Kansas since has been a Republican.
Worth noting: McGill lost comeback bids in 1942, 1948 and 1954.

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