LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Mueller, Barr Takeaways – Party Issue Preference

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Politico/Morning Consult) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide

TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRATIf the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 
Democratic candidate: 47% (same as last week)
Trump: 39% (+1 from last week)
It depends: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s re-elect percentage went up 1 point from last week. 
RE-ELECT: If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote for someone else or definitely vote for someone else? 
Definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump: 24%
Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump: 10% 
Probably vote for someone else: 8% 
Definitely vote for someone else: 49%
RON’S COMMENT: Overall, 34% are leaning toward Trump and 57% are leaning toward voting for someone else––keep in mind, however, that “someone else” does not necessarily have to be a Democrat, it may be a third-party candidate or an independent…. Intensity numbers are especially bad for Trump in this poll: While 57% of Republicans would definitely vote for him, 83% of Democrats would definitely vote for someone else. Among independents, 16% would definitely vote to re-elect Trump, while 46% would definitely vote for someone else.

Among voters nationwide

WITCH HUNT? Do you think the Mueller investigation of President Trump is a witch hunt or a legitimate investigation?
Legitimate investigation: 50%
Witch hunt: 39%
Not sure: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: 79% of Democrats, 40% of Independents and 14% of Republicans believe it was a legitimate investigation. 75% of Republicans say it was a witch hunt…. 6% of voters say they’ve read all of the Mueller report and another 11% say they’ve read most of it…. In addition, 53% of voters say they believe the Mueller report is mostly true, while 20% say about half and half and 7% say mostly false. Also: 32% of Republicans say it’s mostly true, compared to 63% of Democrats.
BARR: Based on what you know, do you approve of the way Attorney General William Barr has handled the release of information from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, or do you disapprove? 
Approve of Barr’s handling: 31%
Disapprove of Barr’s handling: 37%
Don’t know: 33%
RON’S COMMENT: 15% of Democrats, 27% of independents and 54% of Republicans approved of the way AG Barr has handled release of information from Mueller’s report…. Overall, Barr’s rating is 20% favorable/30% unfavorable. Republicans lean positive toward Barr, 39-14. Independents lean negative 29-27. Robert Mueller’s rating is now 38% favorable/31% unfavorable.
OBSTRUCTION: Which of the following comes closest to your understanding of the results of Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel Investigation, even if none is exactly right? 

  • Mueller found that President Trump obstructed the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election: 20% 
  • Mueller found that President Trump did not obstruct the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election: 16%
  • Mueller did not make a determination on whether President Trump obstructed the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election: 37%
  • Don’t know: 27%

Among voters nationwide

Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? 
Republicans lead on….
National security: +9 points 
The economy: +3 points
Jobs: +4 points
Democrats lead on….
The environment: +28 points
Sexual harassment/misconduct in workplace: +22 points 
Protecting Medicare and Social Security: +19 points 
Education: +18 points
Healthcare: +15 points
Energy: +14 points
Immigration: +3 points
Gun policy: +3 points
RON’S COMMENT: Men favor Republicans on the economy 49-35, but women favor Democrats 40-34…. Whites favor Republicans on national security 50-30 and voters 65 and older favor Republicans on national security 50-35….. Whites favor Republicans on immigration 44-37, Hispanics favor Democrats 49-28 and blacks favor Democrats 68-17…. Millennials favor Democrats on the environment 62-18…. Women favor Democrats on education 48-25 and Millennials favor Democrats on education 57-22….. Women favor Democrats on sexual harassment 48-20…. Men favor Republicans on gun policy 44-39 and women favor Democrats, 44-32.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP RE-ELECT, PARTY PREFERENCE BY ISSUE: Politico/Morning Consult, April 19-21
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT, WITCH HUNT: The Economist/YouGov, April 21-23
MUELLER, BARR: Politico/Morning Consult, April 19-21
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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