Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, April 23, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Politico/Morning Consult) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
% = Monmouth/Morning Consult = Average
Joe Biden: 27%/30% = 28.5
Bernie Sanders: 20%/24% = 22
Pete Buttigieg: 8%/9% = 8.5
Kamala Harris: 8%/8% = 8
Elizabeth Warren: 6%/7% = 6.5
Beto O’Rourke: 4%/6% = 5
Cory Booker: 2%/4% = 3
Amy Klobuchar: 1%/2% = 1.5
John Hickenlooper: 2%/1% = 1.5
Bill de Blasio: 1%/ –
Julian Castro: – /1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: – /1%
Tulsi Gabbard: – /1%
Andrew Yang: – /2%
Jay Inslee: – /1%
Tim Ryan: – /1%
Candidates with less than 1% in both polls not listed
RON’S COMMENT: The average of both polls shows Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg in the top three, with Harris very close behind and Warren fifth…. Since last week in the Morning Consult poll, Biden is down 1 point, Sanders is up 1, Buttigieg is up 2 and O’Rourke is down 2 …. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 34%, then Sanders 26%, Buttigieg 9% and Harris 9%…. The Monmouth poll was completed the day the Morning Consult poll started interviewing.
Issues most important to Democratic voters:
All Democrats: healthcare (25%), economic (22%), senior’s issues (18%).
Bidensupporters: senior’s issues (26%), healthcare (24%), economic (21%).
Sanders supporters: healthcare (26%), economic (25%), senior’s issues (12%).
Buttigieg supporters: healthcare (34%), senior’s issues (20%), economic (15%).
Warren supporters: healthcare (27%), economic (16%), senior’s issues (16%).
NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic voters statewide
Bernie Sanders: 30%
Joe Biden: 18%
Pete Buttigieg: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 5%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Cory Booker: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Tim Ryan: 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Wayne Messam: 1%
Eric Swalwell: 1%
Candidates with less than 1% not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Since the February New Hampshire poll, Buttigieg has jumped 13 points and Sanders has increased by 4 points. Biden is down 4 and Harris is down 6…. A massive 77% of Democratic voters in New Hampshire say they’re still trying to decide, which makes the race very fluid. Only 9% say they’ve definitely decided and 14% say they’re leaning toward someone…. Testing likability: Biden wins with 28%, Sanders is second with 22%, Buttigieg is at 13% and O’Rourke is at 11%. The neighboring state’s senator Warren is at 1%, down from 3% in February…. Likability by gender: It appears that likability is hurting the women candidates among both male and female voters. Only a total of 4% of New Hampshire voters pick a woman candidate as the most likable (2% for Harris, 1% for Klobuchar and 1% for Warren)––compared to 77% who pick a male candidate as most likable.
IOWA: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters statewide
Joe Biden: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 14%
Kamala Harris: 6%
Elizabeth Warren: 6%
Beto O’Rourke: 5%
Cory Booker: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
John Delaney: 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Mike Gravel: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Candidates with less than 1% not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This Iowa poll shows the contest becoming a three-way race with Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg in the lead. Among Democratic women, Biden wins 19% to 16% for Sanders and 15% for Buttigieg. Among Democratic men, Sanders wins 24% to 19% for Biden and 11% for Buttigieg.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, April 15-21; Monmouth Univ., April 11-15
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Univ. of NH, April 10-18
IOWA: Gravis, April 17-18
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