LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Alabama – Federal Budget – Candidate Consideration – Trump vs. Generic Dem

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Up 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Monmouth) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-2 from yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters statewide

Sen. Doug Jones (D) job rating
Approve 45%
Disapprove: 44%
Sen. Doug Jones (D) re-elect rating
Re-elect him: 40%
Replace him: 50%
RON’S COMMENT: Jones, a Democrat in Alabama, is widely considered the most endangered incumbent up for re-election next year. In this poll, his job rating leans slightly positive but only two out of five voters want to see him re-elected. By gender: 34% of men and 46% of women would re-elect him. By race: 20% of whites and 84% of blacks would re-elect him.
Republican primary for Senate
Roy Moore: 27%
Mo Brooks: 18% 
Bradley Byrne: 13%
Gary Palmer: 11%
Del Marsh: 4% 
Tim James: 2%
Undecided: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: Moore, who lost the special election to Democrat Doug Jones, leads the GOP primary at this point. Three members of Congress––Brooks, Byrne, Palmer––follow. Moore has nearly total name ID, which limits his vote growth potential. The other candidates have much more room for growth. Of this list, only Byrne has formally entered the race.

Among voters nationwide

If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for? 
Generic Democrat over Trump: +9 (47-38)

RON’S COMMENT: The gap has expanded to 9 points from 7 points a week ago, when it was 47-40…. Interesting to note that 28% of independents and 24% of 18-29-year-olds say they would not vote. Also, 82% of Republicans side with Trump on this question and 83% of Democrats side with their “generic” candidate.

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Which candidate or candidates are you considering voting for in the Democratic Presidential primary or caucus in your state in 2020? Select all that apply 
Among Democratic primary voters:
Joe Biden: 46% (-3 from last week)  
Bernie Sanders: 41% (-2)   
Kamala Harris: 38% (-2)    
Elizabeth Warren: 37%     
Pete Buttigieg: 32% (+3)    
Beto O’Rourke: 31%      
Cory Booker: 28% (+2)    
Amy Klobuchar: 17% (+1)    
Julian Castro: 13%   
Kirsten Gillibrand: 12% (+1)
(List includes all those with 10% or more)
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers give us an opportunity to look at the number of Democrats who would consider voting for each candidate in a presidential primary or caucus…. Since last week, Buttigieg has climbed 3 points, while Biden has fallen 3 points. Booker, Klobuchar and Gillibrand have improved by a point or two…. These numbers add up to over 100% because respondents were allowed to select multiple candidates they are considering.
Fluidity: This poll finds that only a third of Democratic voters have narrowed their consideration down to one or two candidates––while an additional 27% are considering two to four candidates and 39% are considering four or more candidates.
Field satisfaction: 76% of Democrats say they are satisfied with their party’s current candidate choices and only 24% say they wish there were more choices.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ALABAMA: Mason-Dixon, April 9-11

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