Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, April 16, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 31% (-1 from last week)
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Beto O’Rourke: 8%
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 7% (+2)
Cory Booker: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
John Delaney: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1% (-1)
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Steve Bullock: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Jay Inslee: 1%
Tim Ryan: 1%
Candidates with less than 1% not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This Morning Consult poll paints a somewhat different picture than did the Emerson poll we reported yesterday. It shows Biden in first place, while Emerson had Sanders on top. Both polls showed a 4-way contest for third place, with Buttigieg moving up…. Biden’s favorability rating is 76% favorable/15% unfavorable among Democrats, which is still strong. His hard favorability went up a point since last week, going from 35% to 36%. But, that’s still an 8-point decline from where it was three weeks ago…. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden holds a solid advantage with 37%, then Sanders 21% and Warren 8%…. Among Democrats with incomes above $100k, it’s Biden 31%, Sanders 14% and Buttigieg 11%…. Interesting to note, Yang gets 5% of men 18-29––putting him above Harris, Buttigieg and Booker for that slice of the Democratic electorate.
AOC IN HER OWN DISTRICT
Among voters in New York-14
I’m going to read a series of names of people and institutions in public life and I’d like you to tell me whether you have a favorable opinion or an unfavorable opinion of each person or institution I name….
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Favorable: 52%
Unfavorable: 33%
RON’S COMMENT: 65% of Democrats in her district, 17% of Republicans and 38% of independents rate AOC favorably.
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for re-election to Congress in 2020, as things stand now, would you vote to re-elect her or would you prefer someone else?
Re-elect her: 48%
Prefer someone else: 39%
Don’t know: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: 61% of Democrats, 16% of Republicans and 29% of independents in her U.S. House district would vote to re-elect Ocasio-Cortez…. Two-thirds of the district, which includes parts of Queens and the Bronx, is Democratic…. The poll also finds that 57% of her district’s voters think it was bad for New York that Amazon cancelled its new headquarters in Queens while 32% say it was good––an issue with which AOC is identified. Also, 58% of voters in the district support Gov. Cuomo’s efforts to get Amazon to reconsider its decision.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Yesterday was tax day. What year did April 15 become the deadline for IRS filings?
(See answer below)
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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, April 8-14
AOC: Siena College, March 31-April 4
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
1955. The filing deadline for individuals was March 1st in 1913 (the first year of the federal income tax). It was changed to March 15th in 1918 and to April 15th in 1955.
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