LUNCHTIME POLITICS: A Look at Joe Biden – California Democratic Primary

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (IBD/TIPP) to 53% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 6 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide

As you may know, former Vice President Joe Biden is considering a run for president in 2020. When thinking about the 2020 presidential election, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Joe Biden is out of touch with the challenges that younger Americans face today
Among all voters 
Agree: 49%
Disagree: 31%
Among Democrats 
Agree: 37%
Disagree: 45%
Joe Biden’s decades of political experience make him an effective leader
Among all voters 
Agree: 55%
Disagree: 29%
Among Democrats 
Agree: 74%
Disagree: 14%
Joe Biden is too old to run for president 
Among all voters 
Agree: 35%
Disagree: 46%
Among Democrats 
Agree: 30%
Disagree: 58%
Joe Biden is not progressive enough to make the changes Democrats need
Among Democrats 
Agree: 35%
Disagree: 50%
Joe Biden is the Democrat with the best chance to defeat President Trump 
Among Democrats 
Agree: 54%
Disagree: 30%
Joe Biden can keep the Democratic Party from moving too far to the left on the political spectrum
Among Democrats 
Agree: 58%
Disagree: 20%
Recent accusations against Biden:
As you may know, multiple women have said that in the past, former Vice President   has touched them in ways that made them feel uncomfortable. Based on what you know, does this give you a more or less favorable impression of Biden, or does it make no difference either way? 
Among all voters
More favorable toward Biden: 8%
Less favorable toward Biden: 40%
No difference: 42%
Among Democrats
More favorable toward Biden: 10%
Less favorable toward Biden: 33%
No difference: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: Two out of five voters across the country and a third of Democrats say the recent accusations have made them less favorable toward Biden. By gender: 39% of all male voters and 40% of all women voters say less favorable. By age: 49% of all voters under 30 say less favorable compared to 34% of those 65 or older…. In many ways, these accusations may be hurting Biden more within the context of age and being generationally “out of touch,” as opposed to hurting him within the context of a “me, too” issue.

Among Democratic voters statewide

California presidential primary
Joe Biden: 26%
Bernie Sanders: 18%
Kamala Harris: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 7% 
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Steve Bullock: %
Jay Inslee: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
(Candidates with less than 1% not listed)
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers are not that great for Harris. To win the nomination, she ultimately needs to dominate her home state of California with its boatload of delegates. Running third is a start for her, but it shows she still has work to do at home…. These numbers are somewhat encouraging for Biden, who’s holding first place, and for Buttigieg, who now ties Warren for fourth place…. Among the most liberal Democrats in California, Harris wins with 31%, then Sanders 23%, Buttigieg 10% and Biden 8%…. Among women, Biden leads with 25%. Sanders and Harris are tied for second place at 17%…. Biden and Sanders lead the Hispanic vote, each getting 30%. Castro gets 2%…. Biden wins on being the best leader (31%) and having the best chance to beat Trump (35%), but Sanders wins on having the best policy ideas (23%).
As you may know, some women have said that Joe Biden touched them in a way that was not sexual, but made them uncomfortable. He has said that he doesn’t believe he did anything inappropriate, but that he will be more mindful of people’s personal space moving forward. Do you consider these allegations to be a serious issue, or are these allegations not a serious issue to you?
Yes/serious issue: 24%
Not a serious issue: 71%
RON’S COMMENT: A substantial majority of California Democrats say the touching accusations against Biden are not a serious issue.
In general, would you say that the United States is ready to elect a president who is a gay man, or wouldn’t you say that?
Yes: 49%
No: 43%
RON’S COMMENT: Most California Democrats think the country is ready to elect a president who is a gay man, although it’s less than a majority. Note, too, that this question asks whether voters think the country is ready to elect a gay man––which requires an assessment of other voters’ attitudes––rather than whether they, themselves, are ready to do so.

Among voters nationwide

[ASKED OF THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY FILED THEIR TAXES THIS YEAR] Did you pay more in taxes than you thought you would this year, less in taxes than you thought you would this year, or was it about what you expected? 

Paid MORE in taxes than they thought: 30%
Paid LESS in taxes than they thought: 25%
Paid about what they expected: 45%

RON’S COMMENT: We ran these results yesterday, but the answer options didn’t distinguish more vs. less.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
JOE BIDEN: Morning Consult, April 5-7
CALIFORNIA: Quinnipiac, April 3-8
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate 
G = Green Party candidate 
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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