Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, April 8, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters, Politico-Morning Consult) to 51% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll had it at 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Friday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
Among voters statewide
Bernie Sanders: 26%
Joe Biden: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Beto O’Rourke: 8%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
John Delaney: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 0%
Jay Inslee: 0%
RON’S COMMENT: Bad news for Warren. She’s running third in her home state, with Sanders beating her almost two-to-one and Buttigieg not far behind in fourth place…. By age: Sanders wallops the field with voters under 30––he gets 52% compared to 15% for O’Rourke and 10% each for Biden and Warren. Biden wins voters over 65 (33%) with Buttigieg in second place (16%)…. In 2016, Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated Sanders in the Massachusetts primary by 1.4 points.
Donald Trump over Bill Weld: +64 (82-18)RON’S COMMENT: Trump trounces former Massachusetts Gov. Weld by 64 points in a GOP primary––proving once again that in this era, all politics are national.
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +38 (69-31)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +28 (64-36)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +26 (63-37)
RON’S COMMENT: No surprise that Trump loses by a wide margin in the general election in Massachusetts. Hillary Clinton beat Trump here by 60-33. Interesting, though, that both Biden and Sanders do better against Trump than Warren.
REGULATION OF POLITICAL ADS ON SOCIAL MEDIA
Among adults nationwide
Do you think the government should or should not regulate how social media companies (eg. Facebook and Twitter) run political advertising?
Government should regulate: 33%
Government should regulate: 36%
Not sure: 30%
RON’S COMMENT: 40% of Democrats, 28% of independents and 32% of Republicans favor regulating how social media companies should run political advertising.
Do you think the government should or should not regulate how social media companies (eg. Facebook and Twitter) allow groups to target advertising in order to prevent illegal discrimination?
Government should regulate: 41%
Government should regulate: 28%
Not sure: 31%
RON’S COMMENT: 53% of Democrats, 36% of independents and 32% of Republicans favor regulating how social media companies allow groups to target advertising.
Do you think the government should or should not regulate how social media companies (eg. Facebook and Twitter) safeguard the personal data of their users?
Government should regulate: 56%
Government should regulate: 21%
Not sure: 23%
RON’S COMMENT: 66% of Democrats, 47% of independents and 58% of Republicans favor regulating how social media companies safeguard personal data of their users.
Among voters in Israel
Parties leading for Knesset seats
(based on average of last three polls)
Blue & White: 29 seats
Likud: 28 seats
Labor: 10 seats
Others: 58 seats
Right-wing bloc (sum of right-of-center parties): 66 seats
Center-Left bloc (sum of center and left-of-center parties): 54 seats
RON’S COMMENT: The latest polling shows a close race for control of seats in the Knesset in tomorrow’s election. Challenger Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party edges Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party, although there remains enough undecided voters to shift the results.
Story on the election: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/04/israeli-election-netanyahu-gantz-west-bank-palestinian-peace.html
Story on the polling: https://www.jta.org/2019/04/07/israel/the-final-polls-are-in-and-israels-election-is-a-nail-biter
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MASSACHUSETTS: Emerson College, April 4-7
REGULATION OF POLITICAL ADS ON SOCIAL MEDIA: The Economist/YouGov, March 31-April 2
ISRAEL: Panel Project HaMidgam/Statnet/Channel 13, Smith/Maariv, Maagar Mohot/Radio 103FM
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