Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, April 4, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters, Politico-Morning Consult) to 48% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll had it at 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable (net positive or negative)
Pete Buttigieg: 24%/17% (+7 positive)
Joe Biden: 48%/42% (+6 positive)
Stacey Abrams: 32%/28% (+4 positive)
Andrew Yang: 17%/18% (-1 negative)
Cory Booker: 35%/37% (-2 negative)
Kamala Harris: 37%/40% (-3 negative)
Jay Inslee: 14%/17% (-3 negative)
Julian Castro: 23%/27% (-4 negative)
Bernie Sanders: 44%/48% (-4 negative)
William Weld: 13%/17% (-4 negative)
Amy Klobuchar: 24%/29% (-5 negative)
Larry Hogan: 11%/16% (-5 negative)
Beto O’Rourke: 35%/40% (-5 negative)
John Delaney: 12%/18% (-6 negative)
Elizabeth Warren: 38%/45% (-7 negative)
John Hickenlooper: 17%/26% (-9 negative)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 25%/37% (-12 negative)
Donald Trump: 43%/55% (-12 negative)
Tulsi Gabbard: 16%/29% (-13 negative)
John Kasich: 25%/39% (-14 negative)
Howard Schultz: 15%/31% (-16 negative)
RON’S COMMENT: Last week, Biden’s rating was 51% favorable/42% unfavorable among all voters nationwide. Since then, his favorable rating has declined 3 points and his negative rating has remained the same––in this poll he’s now 48% favorable/42% unfavorable. In any event, he’s still net positive, along with only two others tested (Abrams and Buttigieg). Everyone else is net negative…. The candidate with the worst net negative rating is independent Schultz at -16. He’s even -12 among fellow independents. Kasich is second on the net negative list (-14). Even though Kasich is a Republican, his rating is 22% favorable/41% unfavorable among fellow party members. More evidence that GOP politicians cross Trump at their own peril…. Buttigieg has the best net positive rating (+7), although he still has relatively low national name ID.
REGULATION
Among voters nationwide
Do you think there is too much or too little regulation of business by government?
Too much: 28%
About the right amount: 22%
Too little: 30%
Not sure: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: In this poll, voters are all over the place on regulation. Five times as many Democrats than Republicans say there is too little regulation (45-9). Almost five times as many Republicans than Democrats say there is too much regulation (47-10)…. 68% of Democrats say there is either the right amount or too little regulation compared to 38% of Republicans who say the same…. The problem with this poll question is what it doesn’t measure. It only looks at public opinion on the amount of regulation and doesn’t measure public satisfaction with the way regulations are written and applied. It also doesn’t ask about the need to prune outdated or ineffective regulations.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Among voters nationwide
When it comes to U.S. presidential elections which would you prefer?
- Amend the Constitution so the candidate who receives the most total votes nationwide wins the election: 45%
- Keep the current system where the candidate who wins the most votes in the Electoral College wins the election: 43%
- Not sure: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: In this poll, voters are split on whether to elect presidents by direct popular votes or by Electoral College votes. Democrats are much more likely to junk the Electoral College than are Republicans (72% vs. 15%)…. Problem with poll question wording: The question should have been phrased: “…the candidate who receives the most popular votes nationwide….” to distinguish more clearly from Electoral votes.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY, REGULATION: The Economist/YouGov, March 31-April 2
ELECTORAL COLLEGE: The Economist/YouGov, March 24-26
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