LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Tuesday Trivia – Candidate Traits – UK Politics – Pennsylvania, Nevada

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Looks like the post-Mueller bump for Trump may have peaked yesterday at 45%…. Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (Politico-Morning Consult, PPP) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters nationwide and in each state


Joe Biden: 33% (-2 from last week)
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 8%
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 3% (+1)
Cory Booker: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
John Delaney: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Steve Bullock: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Jay Inslee: 1%
Terry McAuliffe: 0%

RON’S COMMENT: Not much change in this nationwide poll of Democratic voters from last week. Biden is down 2 and Buttigieg is up 1…. In the subsample of early primary states (IA, NH, SC and NV), Biden leads with 37%, then Sanders 28% and Warren 8%…. Among voters who are “extremely interested” in the electionit’s Biden 29%, Sanders 21%, Harris 11%, O’Rourke 9%, Warren 8% and Buttigieg 7%…. Change in candidate net favorability ratings since mid-February: Biden -3, Sanders +5, Harris -5, Warren +3 and Buttigieg +11.


Joe Biden: 39%
Bernie Sanders: 20%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 5%
Cory Booker: 4%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 2%
Andrew Yang: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
Amy Klobuchar: 0%
John Hickenlooper: 0%
Jay Inslee: 0%

RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts a big lead in Pennsylvania, his birth state. Sanders is second and Warren is third. All others trail distantly. South Bend Mayor Buttigieg has leapfrogged above four better known U.S. senators (Harris, Klobuchar, Booker and Gillibrand), two governors (Inslee and formerly Hickenlooper), a former mayor and cabinet secretary (Castro), a current member of the U.S. House (Gabbard, whose candidacy shows a little life in this Pennsylvania poll) and a former member of the U.S House (O’Rourke).


Joe Biden: 26%
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Beto O’Rourke: 10%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 0%
Jay Inslee: 0%

RON’S COMMENT: In Nevada, Biden and Sanders dominate the first tier among Nevada Democrats. Warren, O’Rourke and Harris hold second tier. Buttigieg leads the third tier, while Klobuchar, Booker and Gabbard are in the 2% Club and Castro and Gillibrand are stuck in the 1% Club…. Note that Yang is at 3%, above Klobuchar, Booker, Gillibrand, Castro, Inslee, Andrew Yang and Hickenlooper…. Hispanics break four ways, with Biden leading at (20%), Sanders (18%), O’Rourke third (17%) and Warren fourth (15%).

Among voters nationwide

Now, NOT thinking about any specific candidates, I’m going to list several types of people who might run for president. For each one, please tell me whether that type of candidate is someone you would (a) be enthusiastic about, (b) be comfortable with, (c) have some reservations about, or (d) be very uncomfortable with. 

% = Enthusiastic + Comfortable/Have Reservations + Very Uncomfortable
A woman: 85%/12%
A woman of color: 83%/13%
A Hispanic: 83%/13%
An Asian: 81%/15%
A white man: 86%/10%

RON’S COMMENT: It should be noted that 30% of all voters say they’d be enthusiastic about a woman candidate, 28% would be enthusiastic about a woman of color and 19% would be enthusiastic about a white man…. Only 10-13% say they have reservations or would feel very uncomfortable about any of these candidates.

Among voters in Great Britain

Political Party Preference (average of last two polls): 
Labour: 38%
Conservative: 36%
Lib Dems: 8%
UKIP: 8%

RON’S COMMENT: As the Brexit debacle plays out, the Conservative Party of Prime Minister Theresa May trails Labour by 2 points––that’s a shift from a month ago, when the Tories led Labour by 6 points (40-34).


Four of the candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination graduated from Harvard or Yale. Name them.

(See answer below)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEVADA: Emerson College, March 28-30
PENNSYLVANIA: Emerson College, March 26-28
UK PARTY POLITICS: Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday, Opinium/The Observer: March 28-30

When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

Julian Castro (JD) and Pete Buttigieg (BA) graduated from Harvard. Amy Klobuchar (BA) and Cory Booker (JD) graduated from Yale.

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