LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Investigation Fallout – Candidate Traits – Trump vs. The Party – Pennsylvania, Nevada

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, April 1, 2019

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (Morning Consult) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Friday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters in each state

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Kamala Harris (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +3 (51-48)
Beto O’Rourke (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)

RON’S COMMENT: Pennsylvania was critical to Trump’s 2016 election. He carried the state by seven-tenths of a point. In today’s polling, Trump trails all the Democrats tested. Significantly, this poll was taken after release of the AG’s summary of the Mueller report.

Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +8 (54-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Pete Buttigieg(D): +4 (52-48)
Donald Trump (R) over Bernie Sanders (I/D): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +2 (51-49)

RON’S COMMENT: Nevada was a swing state in the 2016 election. Trump carried the state by 2.4 points. In today’s polling, Trump trails Biden by a small margin, but beats the other Democrats by 2 to 8 points. This poll was taken after release of the AG’s summary of the Mueller report.

Among voters nationwide

Based on what you have seen, read, or heard about Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, has it given you more doubts about Donald Trump’s presidency or not? 

Yes, more doubts: 36%
No, no more doubts: 57%

RON’S COMMENT: Since release of the AG’s summary of the Mueller report, the percentage of voters saying Mueller’s investigation has given them more doubts about Trump’s presidency has gone down 14 points since December, when it was 50%.

There has been some discussion about Congress holding hearings to consider impeaching and removing President Trump from office. Which of the following best describes what you think… 

  • There is enough evidence for Congress to begin impeachment hearings now: 16%
  • Congress should continue investigating to see if there is enough evidence to hold impeachment hearings in the future: 33%
  • Congress should not hold impeachment hearings and Donald Trump should finish his term as president: 47%

RON’S COMMENT: Only 16% of voters say there is enough evidence for Congress to begin impeachment hearings now––although another 33% say Congress should continue investigating.

Based on what you have seen, read, or heard about the information available so far from the Mueller report, would you say it does or does not clear Donald Trump of wrongdoing? 

Does clear Trump: 29%
Does not clear Trump: 40%
Unsure: 31%

RON’S COMMENT: Many voters are waiting to see what else may come out from the Mueller report. Fewer than three in ten say the AG’s summary of the report clears Trump and even more say they’re unsure.

Among Democratic voters nationwide

[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS ONLY] In thinking about how the eventual Democratic nominee for president in 2020 approaches issues like health care, climate change, college affordability, and economic opportunity, which of the following comes closer to describing the candidate you prefer?

  • Someone who proposes larger scale policies that cost more and might be harder to pass into law, but could bring major change on these issues: 52%
  • Someone who proposes smaller scale policies that cost less and might be easier to pass into law, but will bring less change on these issues: 44%

RON’S COMMENT: A majority of Democrats prefer larger scale policies that cost more than smaller scale policies that might be easier to pass. However, the 52% of Democrats who take that position is down from 55% in February.

[ASKED OF DEMOCRATS ONLY] I’m going to list people who have said they will run or might run for president. For each one, please tell me whether that person is someone you would (a) be enthusiastic about, (b) be comfortable with, (c) have some reservations about, or (d) be very uncomfortable with. If you don’t know the name, please just say so. 

% = Enthusiastic + Comfortable / Have Reservations + Very Uncomfortable
Joe Biden: 73%/25%
Bernie Sanders: 62%/36%
Elizabeth Warren: 57%/33%
Kamala Harris: 52%/27%
Beto O’Rourke: 48%/29%

Among Republican voters nationwide

[ASKED OF REPUBLICANS ONLY] Do you consider yourself to be more of a supporter of Donald Trump or more of a supporter of the Republican Party? 

More of a Trump supporter: 43%
More of a Republican Party supporter: 47%

RON’S COMMENT: Interestingly, a slightly greater number of GOP voters now say they’re more of a party supporter than a Trump supporter. That’s changed from January, when 51% said more of a Trump supporter and 38% said more of a party supporter.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEVADA: Emerson College, March 28-30
PENNSYLVANIA: Emerson College, March 26-28

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