Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, March 29, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, mostly taken after release of the AG’s report on the Mueller investigation. They range from 42% (Morning Consult) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT
Among voters nationwide
If the election for president were held today with Donald Trump as the Republican running against a Democratic Party candidate, who would you vote for?
The Democratic candidate: 47%
Donald Trump: 41%
It depends: 9%
I would not vote: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: The week before release of the AG’s report on the Mueller findings, 38% said in this same poll that they would vote for Trump. Since the report was released, Trump’s vote went up 3 points to 41%. The “generic” Democratic candidate’s vote stayed the same at 47%…. In the latest poll, independents are split––30% vote for Trump and 31% vote for a generic Democrat, with a substantial 39% saying “it depends” or they won’t vote. Before the AG’s report on the Mueller findings, independents broke 26% for Trump and 26% for the Democrat…. Trump beats the Democrat by 4 points among whites, 6 points among men and 2 points among voters over 65. The Democrat wins women by 16 points, blacks by 46 points, Hispanics by 20 points and voters under 30 by 18 points…. Always remember: In the end, voters won’t pick between Trump and a “generic” Democrat. They will pick between Trump and a “flesh-and-blood” Democrat––and maybe even a “flesh-and-blood” independent as well.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 35%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Beto O’Rourke: 7%
Elizabeth Warren: 6%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Cory Booker: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Pete Buttigieg: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Jay Inslee: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Harris dropping to fifth place. Most previous polls had her third. It also shows Biden beating Sanders by more than a 2 to 1 margin.
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Mueller is handling his job as special counsel?
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like Mueller came out of the Russia investigation with public opinion on his side. Also, 72% of Democrats approve of the job he did as compared to 35% of Republicans.
Do you think the full contents of the Mueller report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election should or should not be released to the public?
Should be released to the public: 74%
Should not be released to the public: 12%
Not sure: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters strongly believe the full contents of the Mueller report should be released to the public––84% of Democrats and 56% of Republicans agree.
Do you think the Mueller investigation of President Trump is a witch hunt or a legitimate investigation?
Legitimate investigation: 51%
Witch hunt: 40%
Not sure: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: 82% of Democrats and 18% of Republicans say it was a legitimate investigation.
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people [or political parties]?
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Donald Trump: 45%/54%
Mike Pence: 44%/48%
Nancy Pelosi: 43%/51%
Chuck Schumer: 36%/47%
Kevin McCarthy: 20%/34%
Mitch McConnell: 26%/56%
Jared Kushner: 30%/51%
Ivanka Trump: 43%/50%
Hillary Clinton: 42%/55%
Democratic Party: 46%/51%
Republican Party: 40%/57%
RON’S COMMENT: Every public figure and party tested has net negative popularity ratings. Says a lot about where the U.S. is politically…. Before release of the AG’s report on the Mueller findings, Trump’s personal rating was 42% favorable/56% unfavorable in this poll––meaning his positive rating went up 3 points since then and his negative rating went down 2 points…. Looking at swing voters: 30% of independents are favorable toward the Democratic Party and 53% are unfavorable…. 30% of independents are favorable toward the Republican Party and 51% are unfavorable…. Also: 40% of independents say the Democratic Party is too liberal and 19% say it’s about right. 31% of independents say the Republican Party is too conservative and 18% say it’s about right.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MUELLER, FAVORABILITY RATINGS, TRUMP VS. GENERIC DEMOCRAT: The Economist/YouGov, March 24-26
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Harvard Harris, March 25-26
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