Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, March 26, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating…. Note that today’s numbers still do not reflect public reaction to the Mueller report. The vast majority of interviews for the polls used in today’s average were conducted before the summary report was released.
IOWA: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
General election:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (53-47)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +8 (54-46)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Cory Booker (D): +4 (52-48)
Three-way general election:
Donald Trump (R) 48%, Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%, Howard Schultz (Ind) 7%
Donald Trump (R) 47%, Bernie Sanders (D) 45%, Howard Schultz (Ind) 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump carried Iowa by nearly 10 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. In this poll, he’s losing to Biden and Sanders, but he’s leading Harris, Warren and Booker…. This survey was taken before release of the summary of the Mueller report.
COLLEGE ADMISSIONS
Among voters nationwide
Which of the following better describes your view of college admissions?
The process is fair: 25%
The process is rigged: 49%
Depends: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: Only a quarter of voters believe the college admissions process is fair. That’s a stunningly low number…. Looking at the internal numbers: 28% of men, 23% of women, 26% of whites, 24% of nonwhites, 20% of Democrats, 31% of Republicans and 21% of independents say the admissions process is fair.
NORTH KOREA
Among voters nationwide
Since Donald Trump took office, do you think North Korea is closer to giving up its nuclear weapons program, farther from giving up its weapons program, or are things about the same?
Closer: 24%
Farther: 27%
About the same: 41%
RON’S COMMENT: Less than a quarter of voters believe that since Trump took office North Korea is closer to giving up its nuclear weapons program.
TAX THE RICH
Among Democratic voters nationwide
[ASKED OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS ONLY] How likely are you to support a Democratic presidential primary candidate who supports a 70 percent tax rate on household income over 10 million dollars?
Would support: 73%
Would not support: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: A heavy majority of Democrats would favor a presidential candidate who supports a 70 percent tax rate on household income over $10 million.
ABORTION
Among voters nationwide
On the issue of abortion, would you say you are more pro-life or more pro-choice?
Pro-Choice: 46%
Pro-Life: 43%
Both/mix: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: While there are more pro-choice than pro-life voters, neither side has majority support. The pro-choice side is down 6 points since 2016 and 2017, when they were drawing 52%…. Looking at the internals from the latest poll, 45% of men, 47% of women, 44% of whites, 52% of nonwhites, 44% of white men, 43% of white women, 65% of Democrats, 25% of Republicans and 47% of independents say they’re pro-choice when given these options.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which three presidential inaugurations were held at the White House?
(See answer below)
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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: Emerson College, March 21-24
COLLEGE ADMISSIONS, NORTH KOREA, TAX THE RICH, ABORTION: Fox News, March 17-20
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Franklin Roosevelt’s fourth inauguration (1945), Harry Truman’s first swearing-in (1945) and Gerald Ford’s presidential oath-taking (1974) were held at the White House.
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