Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, March 25, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (The Economist) to 46% (Fox News). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating. NOTE: Most of the interviews for today’s average were conducted before release of the Mueller report. We won’t get a reading on the impact until later this week.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Among general election voters:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +7 (47-40)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (44-41)
Donald Trump (R) over Elizabeth Warren (D): +2 (42-40)
Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +2 (41-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden and Sanders beat Trump, but Trump beats Harris and Warren…. In the Biden vs. Trump trial heat, Biden carries men by 2, women by 12, nonwhites by 51 and independents by 3. Trump carries whites by 10, white women by 8 and white men by 11…. NOTE: This poll was conducted before release of the Mueller report.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 31%
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Kamala Harris: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 8%
Elizabeth Warren: 4%
Cory Booker: 4%
Amy Klobuchar: 1%
Julian Castro: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 2%
Bill de Blasio: 1%
Jay Inslee: 1%
John Delaney: 1%
Tulsi Gabbard: *%
Pete Buttigieg: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
Steve Bullock: *%
John Hickenlooper: *%
Terry McAuliffe: *%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll finds Harris and O’Rourke tied for third place…. Among Democrats polled, Biden gets 33% of men, 29% of women, 33% of whites, 28% of nonwhites, 37% of white men, 30% of white women, 19% of Democrats under 45 and 45% of Democrats 45 or older…. This survey also finds that majorities of Democrats are likely to vote for candidates who favor slavery reparations, the Green New Deal and Medicare for all:
- 54% of Democrats are “very” or “somewhat” likely to vote for a candidate who supports slavery reparations. Interestingly, 42% of white Democrats and 69% of nonwhite Democrats agree.
- 61% of Democrats are “very” or “somewhat” likely to vote for a candidate who supports the Green New Deal. Generation gap: 70% of Democrats under 45 and 54% of those 45 or older agree.
- 88% of Democrats are “very” or “somewhat” likely to vote for a candidate who supports Medicare for all.
[Asked of Democratic primary voters only] Do you want Joe Biden to enter the 2020 presidential race?
Yes: 67%
No: 18%
Don’t know: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: Two-thirds of Democrats nationally want Biden to run and fewer than one in five don’t.
IOWA: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Among Democratic voters in Iowa
Joe Biden: 25%
Bernie Sanders: 24%
Pete Buttigieg: 11%
Kamala Harris: 10%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Cory Booker: 6%
Beto O’Rourke: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 0%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Terry McAuliffe: %
Jay Inslee: 1%
John Delaney: %
RON’S COMMENT: The big news here is Buttigieg––the 37-year old Mayor of South Bend, Indiana has zoomed up to third place in this poll. In January, this same poll had him at 0% in Iowa. Buttigieg is winning 22% of Iowa’s Democratic voters 18-29 years old.
Among Republican voters in Iowa
Donald Trump over Bill Weld: +80 (90-10)
Donald Trump over Michael Bloomberg: +85 (92-7)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump crushes potential opposition in Iowa. Bloomberg, who was once a Republican, is now a Democrat. It’s a bit odd that the former New York mayor was included in a GOP caucus match-up, although the data will interest election-watchers who suspect we haven’t heard the last of Bloomberg as a possible presidential candidate.
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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENT NATIONAL: Fox News, March 17-20
IOWA: Emerson College, March 21-24
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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