Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, March 20, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Morning Consult) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
PRESIDENT: GENERAL ELECTION
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Kamala Harris (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Donald Trump (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +2 (51-49)
RON’S COMMENT: This polling confirms that Biden is the strongest candidate against Trump––at least for now. That could change, of course, if Biden gets into the race and has to take hits from both Democrats and Republicans…. O’Rourke is the only Democrat tested who trails Trump, although trial heats with Trump against Sanders and Warren are very close.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = CNN/Emerson
Joe Biden: 28%/26%
Bernie Sanders: 20%/26%
Kamala Harris: 12%/12%
Beto O’Rourke: 11%/11%
Elizabeth Warren: 6%/8%
John Kerry: 4%/NA
Cory Booker: 3%/3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%/1%
Pete Buttigieg: 1%/3%
Julian Castro: 1%/1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%/0%
John Hickenlooper: 1%/1%
Jay Inslee: 1%/1%
Andrew Yang: 0%/1%
Tulsi Gabbard: *%/1%
Terry McAuliffe: *%/NA
John Delaney: *%/NA
RON’S COMMENT: The CNN poll has Biden first and Sanders second. The Emerson College poll has Biden and Sanders tied. Harris is third in both polls and O’Rourke is closely behind her in fourth place…. Note that former presidential nominee Kerry is included in the CNN poll, and he attracts support from 4% of Democrats. If Biden does not run, one wonders whether Kerry would jump in and attempt to fill the big-foot void?…. In the Emerson poll, Buttigieg moved out of the 1% club and polls at 3%. On the other hand, Klobuchar is 3% in one poll and drops to the 1% club in the other…. Second choice votes in the CNN poll go to Sanders 17%, Biden 14%, Harris 9% and O’Rourke 8%.
Which best describes how you currently feel about the Democratic field of candidates for president?
- There are one or two candidates you would rather see win the nomination over the others: 37%
- You see the field as wide open, and it’s too early to say which candidates to support in the end: 59%
RON’S COMMENT: A hefty 59% majority of Democratic primary voters in the CNN poll say it’s too early to settle on a candidate to support. That means there is a lot of room for shifts and surprises.
Which is more important to you personally?
- That the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate with a strong chance of beating Donald Trump: 56%
- That the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate who shares your positions on major issues: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats want to beat Trump very badly and most of them will swallow a nominee who doesn’t always agree with them on issues if that’s what it takes to defeat the man in the White House, at least according to this CNN poll.
Do you think Democrats have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2020 if Joe Biden is the party’s nominee, or do they have a better chance of winning with someone else as the party’s nominee?
Better chance with Joe Biden: 51%
Better chance with someone else: 36%
Do you think Democrats have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2020 if Bernie Sanders is the party’s nominee, or do they have a better chance of winning with someone else as the party’s nominee?
Better chance with Bernie Sanders: 33%
Better chance with someone else: 56%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden beats Sanders on general election electability by a substantial 51-33 margin, according to the CNN poll.
TRUMP’S RATING ON ISSUES
Among adults statewide
% = Approve/Disapprove
The economy: 51%/42%
Foreign affairs: 40%/54%
Federal budget: 34%/56%
RON’S COMMENT: Americans see the economy as Trump’s strong suit, and the budget as his weakest. It’s worth noting that while 64% of men approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, only 39% of women do. Also, 59% of whites approve, while 38% of nonwhites do…. 78% of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of the budget.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, TRUMP AND THE ISSUES: CNN, March 14-17
PRESIDENT, DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Emerson College, March 17-18
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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