The International Energy Agency has said that in a matter of years, Russia and Saudi Arabia could no longer be the top oil producer and exporter respectively as the United States threatens to take their place.
The IEA prediction follows a recent record 3.6 million barrels per day of crude oil export by the U.S., which also exports about 5 million bpd of petroleum products, including refined fuels like gasoline.
In its annual five-year oil outlook, the IEA says that those exports will only grow, reaching 12 million bpd by 2024 – growing by another 4 million bpd through the year.
“The second wave of the U.S. shale revolution is coming. It will see the United States account for 70% of the rise in global oil production and some 75% of the expansion in LNG trade over the next five years,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This will shake up international oil and gas trade flows, with profound implications for the geopolitics of energy.”
CNBC writes that last year, the U.S. replaced Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s biggest oil producer and that by toppling them in the export market their influence in the oil market would be further eroded.
IEA also forecasts increased demand for oil in the next five years, saying that although electric cars and fuel efficiency are significantly reducing the demand for gasoline, rising petrochemicals and jet fuel consumption will keep demand high.
According to the group, the world’s appetite for oil will keep in line with current growth trends, increasing at an average 1.2 million bpd over the next five years. IEA adds that most of the output growth from OPEC during that period of time will come from Iraq and that such growth will help counteract production declines in other countries.
In addition to the U.S. and Iraq, IEA sees new actors like Brazil, Norway and Guyana emerging on the market to meet rising demand for oil.