LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Biden, Sanders Top Nationwide and Iowa Polls – Biden Leads Michigan Primary, Beats Trump

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, March 11, 2019

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

Among Democratic voters nationwide

Joe Biden: 28%
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Kamala Harris: 10%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
Beto O’Rourke: 6%
Cory Booker: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Julian Castro: 1%
Bill de Blasio: 1%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Andrew Yang: 1%
Jay Inslee: <1%
Terry McAuliffe: <1%
Pete Buttgieg: <1%
Tulsi Gabbard: <1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: <1%
John Delaney: 0%
Steve Bullock: 0%

RON’S COMMENT: This new poll shows what most others have indicated, Biden and Sanders on top with Harris third and Warren fourth. Sanders has had the most movement over the past two months. The prior Monmouth poll, taken in January, showed Biden at 29%, Sanders 16%, Harris 10%, Warren 8% and O’Rourke 7%…. If Biden does not run, his supporters spread out: 32% for Sanders (which would make him the frontrunner, at least for a while), 15% for Harris (which puts her in second place) and 10% for Warren.

Among voters statewide

Among Democratic primary voters in Michigan:
Joe Biden: 40%
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Kamala Harris: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Cory Booker: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
John Hickenlooper: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
Julian Castro: 0%
Sherrod Brown: %
Jay Inslee: 0%
Tulsi Gabbard: 0%
Pete Buttgieg: 0%

RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts a sizable lead in the Michigan primary with Sanders a distant second. Harris and Warren are neck-and-neck for third place. Sanders wins voters under 30 by 5 points, but Biden wallops among those over 30…. Without Biden in the race, his votes go to Sanders 42%, Harris 23% and Warren 18%….  In 2016, Sanders won 50% of the vote in the Michigan primary.

Among Republican primary voters in Michigan:
Donald Trump over Bill Weld: +78 (89-11)

RON’S COMMENT: No contest on the GOP side.

General election among all voters in Michigan:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (54-46)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (52-47)
Kamala Harris (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Amy Klobuchar (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (53-47)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden does best against Trump. Michigan went for Trump by two-tenths of a point in 2016, which was critical to Trump’s election…. Two years ago I wrote an analysis on how Trump won states like Michigan in 2016 that’s more relevant than ever. To see it, click here:

Three-way general election:
Joe BIden (D) 52%, Donald Trump (R) 44%, Howard Schultz (Ind) 4%
Bernie Sanders (D) 49%, Donald Trump (R) 45%, Howard Schultz (Ind) 6%

Among voters statewide

Among Democratic voters in Iowa:
Joe Biden: 27%
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Kamala Harris: 7%
Beto O’Rourke: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Cory Booker: 3%
Julian Castro: 1%
Jay Inslee: 1%
Pete Buttgieg: 1%
Steve Bullock: 1%
John Delaney: 1%
Bill DeBlasio: 0%
Tulsi Gabbard: 0%
John Hickenlooper: 0%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 0%

RON’S COMMENT: Biden and Sanders are running close in Iowa, the nation’s first caucus state. Harris and Warren are battling for third place…. Favorability ratings: Biden 82% favorable/14% unfavorable, Sanders 71% favorable/25% unfavorable, Warren 63% favorable/20% unfavorable and Harris 58% favorable/9% unfavorable…. This poll finds that 56% of Iowa Democrats would be satisfied if their party’s presidential nominee thinks the U.S. should “be more socialist”…. Though the former VP is not yet a candidate, 64% of Iowa Democrats say Biden is most experienced and should run, while 31% say his time has passed and he should not run….A whopping 84 percent of Iowa Democrats want to nominate a candidate who supports a government-run Medicare-for-all health care system and 65% favor a candidate who “fully” supports the Green New Deal and another 26% supports it “in steps” (for a total of 91%)….In 2016, there were counting discrepancies in the Iowa Democratic caucus results. Hillary Clinton was ultimately declared the winner over Sanders by two-tenths of a point.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENT: Monmouth, March 1-4
MICHIGAN: Emerson College, March 7-10
IOWA: Des Moines Register/CNN, March 3-6

When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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