Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, February 19, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%….President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
PRESIDENT: NOMINATION
Among voters nationwide
Among Democratic voters nationwide:
Joe Biden: 27%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Kamala Harris: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 9%
Cory Booker: 9%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Sherrod Brown: 3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Michael Bloomberg: 2%
Julian Castro: 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden and Sanders continue to hold the top two positions, with Harris moving up to a strong third place. Booker and Klobuchar have also moved up recently––with Booker tying Warren for fourth place––while O’Rourke has slipped behind Klobuchar. Announced candidates Castro and Gillibrand show no traction and Bloomberg, who hasn’t declared, isn’t displaying a great deal of national strength at this point…. Sanders wins 18-34 year olds, getting 35% to Biden’s 18% and Harris’ 12%. Biden runs first among voters 55 and older, with 34%.
Among Republican voters nationwide:
Donald Trump (R) over Bill Weld (R): +70 (85-15)
RON’S COMMENT: Weld has been talking about a possible nomination challenge to Trump. He is the former governor of Massachusetts. He also ran for vice president on the Libertarian ticket with Gary Johnson in 2016.
PRESIDENT: GENERAL ELECTION
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +10 (55-45)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (53-47)
Beto O’Rourke (D) over Donald Trump (R): +6 (53-47)
Kamala Harris (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Sherrod Brown (D) over Donald Trump (R): +4 (52-48)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
Cory Booker (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (51-49)
RON’S COMMENT: All these Democrats are leading Trump in two-way match-ups (with undecideds taken out). Among the Democratic field, Biden does best against the incumbent…. In a three-way race with Howard Schultz running as an independent, Trump leads with 45% to 43% for Harris and 12% for Schultz, adding support for the theory that a Schultz candidacy helps Trump. However, when Biden is the Democratic candidate he keeps a solid lead even with Schultz in the race: Biden 51%, Trump 42% and Schultz 7%.
MARIJUANA IN NEW JERSEY
Among adults statewide
Overall, do you support or oppose legalizing the possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal use?
Support: 62%
Oppose: 32%
RON’S COMMENT: Support has increased 14 points since 2014.
There is currently a proposal in New Jersey to allow anyone over the age of 21 to purchase small quantities of marijuana for their own use from businesses that have been licensed by the state government to sell marijuana. Do you think this is a good idea or bad idea, or do you have no opinion on it?
Good idea: 50%
Bad idea: 34%
No opinion: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Those saying “good idea” has increased 14 points since 2014.
Do you think legalizing marijuana in New Jersey would help the state’s economy, hurt the state’s economy, or have no impact on the state’s economy?
Help economy: 68%
Hurt economy: 11%
No impact: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: The percentage of New Jersey voters who say legalizing marijuana would help the state’s economy increased 8 points since last year.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Among voters statewide
Which president had installed the first bathtub and kitchen stove in the White House?
(See answer below)
AS WE MOVE INTO THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, SEND A FREE SUBSCRIPTION TO FRIENDS AND CLIENTS WHO WOULD ENJOY RECEIVING IT. GO TO LUNCHTIMEPOLITICS.COM AND ENTER THEIR NAMES AND EMAILS.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Emerson College, Feb. 14-16
NEW JERSEY AND MARIJUANA: Monmouth University, Feb. 8-10
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Millard Fillmore.
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