Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, February 6th, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (POLITICO) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 11 points higher than his approval rating…. Note: This poll does not reflect the full reaction to the SOTU speech.
TRUMP SOTU SPEECH
Among those who watched the speech
A CNN poll following Trump’s State of the Union address found that 59% of speech watchers had a very positive reaction to it, 17% had a somewhat positive reaction and 23% had a negative reaction. That’s a total positive reaction of 76%.
- 59% very positive is better than Trump’s 2018 SOTU (48%) and his 2017 message (57%).
- Positive marks for his speech last night cut across demographic groups among speech watchers: 60% of men, 58% of women, 54% of those under age 50, 61% of those 50 or older rated it “very positive.”
- On issues, Trump scored best among speech-watchers for his policies on the economy (76% right direction), followed by trade (70% right direction), national security (70% right direction) and immigration (68% right direction).
- The speech audience last night had the largest partisan tilt ever measured by a CNN instant poll following a presidential address. Speech watchers were about 17 points more likely than the general public to call themselves Republicans and about 20 points more likely to approve of the president’s job performance.
RON’S COMMENT: The speech was politically effective for Trump. However, when looking at polls that only measure a speech audience, as this one did, keep in mind that there were many more Republicans in the audience than there are in the electorate as a whole. This is a common problem when surveying speech audiences and something we have always pointed out with both Democratic and Republican presidents…. The best news for Trump from this poll is that 57% of independents were very positive toward his speech.
MISSISSIPPI: GOVERNOR 2019
Among voters statewide
Jim Hood (D) over Tate Reeves (R): +2 (44-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Though Democrat Hood posts a lead in this red state, his margin has slimmed from 6 points in a December 2017 survey to 2 points now. Hood is a little better known than Reeves, which gives the latter some growing room…. Hood is the state’s AG and Reeves is the lieutenant governor…. This poll also finds that if Bill Waller, Jr. runs as an independent, the trial heat would be: Hood 40%, Reeves 38%, Waller 9%…. GOP Gov. Phil Bryant is term limited.… Primaries to be held Aug. 6. The general election is Nov. 5 of this year.
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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MISSISSIPPI: Mason Dixon, Jan. 30-Feb. 1
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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