Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, January 31, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 40%
Down 2 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: This average provides the clearest look yet at President Trump’s job rating post-shutdown, and it indicates slippage. Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 37% (Gallup) to 43% (The Economist, Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 39%….Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today, which is a substantial 16 points higher than his approval rating.
MICHIGAN: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Joe Biden (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +13 (53-40)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +11 (52-41)
Kamala Harris (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +5 (47-42)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Pres. Donald Trump (R): +3 (46-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Michigan was a critical state in 2016. Trump carried it by two-tenths of percent, winning 47.5% of the vote. This new poll shows Trump trailing Biden and Sanders by double digits in Michigan, but by smaller margins when Harris and Warren are his opponents.
HANDLING SHUTDOWN
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the people below handled the partial federal government shutdown?
% = Approve/Disapprove
Nancy Pelosi: 41%/51%
Donald Trump: 40%/57%
Mitch McConnell: 24%/58%
RON’S COMMENT: All three officials are given net negative ratings on the shutdown. But, Republicans McConnell and Trump came out of it with higher negatives than did Democrat Pelosi…. Among Republicans only, Trump’s rating on the shutdown is 80% approve/15% disapprove…. Among Democrats only, Pelosi’s rating is 72% approve/14% disapprove.
CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?
% = Approve/Disapprove
The Economist: 12%/69%
Monmouth: 18%/73%
Reuters: 23%/69%
RON’S COMMENT: Based on the Monmouth poll, Congressional approval is down 5 points since November and is now about the same as it was in earlier 2018. Currently, 11% of Republicans, 11% of independents and 34% of Democrats approve of Congress.
TRUMP AND THE BUDGET DEFICIT
Among voters nationwide
What kind of job do you think Trump has done so far on handling the federal budget deficit––excellent, good, not so good or poor?
Excellent/good: 34%
Not so good/poor: 60%
RON’S COMMENT: On the deficit issue, Trump comes in at 12 points below the 46% of the vote he received in 2016. His approval on this issue is 67% among Republicans and only 27% among independents.
TRUMP AND BORDER SECURITY
Among voters nationwide
What kind of job do you think Trump has done so far on dealing with border security––excellent, good, not so good or poor?
Excellent/good: 42%
Not so good/poor: 57%
RON’S COMMENT: On the border security issue, Trump comes in at 4 points below the 46% of the vote he received in 2016. His approval on this issue is 83% among Republicans and 43% among independents.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MICHIGAN: Detroit News/WDIV-TV, Jan. 24-26
HANDLING SHUTDOWN: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 27-29
CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL: Monmouth, Jan. 25-27
DEFICIT, BORDER SECURITY: ABC/WaPo, Jan. 21-24
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