LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Job Ratings of 100 Senators – Shutdown

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, January 14, 2019

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: In recent days, President Trump’s ratings have weakened a bit, and the shutdown is likely the cause…. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 37% (CNN) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%….Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 13 points higher than his approval rating.

SHUTDOWN
Among adults nationwide

Who do you think is more responsible for the government shutdown? 

Donald Trump: 55%
Democrats in Congress: 32%
Both (volunteered): 9%

RON’S COMMENT: Of independents, 48% say Trump is responsible for the shutdown and 34% say the Democrats are responsible.

Thinking about the current situation at the border between the United States and Mexico, do you consider the situation at the border to be a crisis, or not? 

Yes, it is a crisis: 45%
No, it is NOT a crisis: 52%

RON’S COMMENT: 65% of Republicans, 23% of Democrats and 47% of independents say the border is in crisis. But, not all those who see a crisis believe the wall is the solution: Among those who think the border is in crisis, 69% say the wall will help solve it, while 17% say it’ll make it worse and 12% say it won’t have any effect.

U.S. SENATORS: JOB RATINGS
Among voters in each state

State, Senator: % Approve/% Disapprove

1. Vermont Bernie Sanders (I): 64%/28%
2. Vermont Patrick Leahy (D):  62%/23%
3. Wyoming John Barrasso (R):  62%/26%
4. South Dakota John Thune (R):  59%/27%
5. Hawaii Brian Schatz (D):  58%/23%
6. Minnesota Amy Klobuchar (D):  58%/27%
7. Hawaii Mazie Hirono (D):  57%/29%
8. Maine Angus King (I): 57%/31%
9. South Dakota Mike Rounds (R):  56%/29%
10. Wyoming Mike Enzi (R): 56%/27%
11. North Dakota John Hoeven (R):  54%/25%
12. Rhode Island Jack Reed (D):  54%/23%
13. Maine Susan Collins (R):  53%/38%
14. South Carolina Tim Scott (R):  52%/22%
15. Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse (D):  51%/33%
16. South Carolina Lindsey Graham (R):  51%/32%
17. Montana Jon Tester (D):  51%/41%
18. New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen (D):  51%/32%
19. Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren (D):  51%/36%
20. Massachusetts Ed Markey (D):  51%/22%
21. Oregon Ron Wyden (D): 50%/24%
22. Mississippi Roger Wicker (R):  50%/25%
23. Maryland Ben Cardin (D):  50%/22%
24. Delaware Tom Carper (D):  49%/28%
25. Texas Ted Cruz (R): 49%/35%
26. Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin (D):  49%/35%
27. Montana Steve Daines (R):  49%/30%
28. Virginia Mark Warner (D):  49%/27%
29. Delaware Chris Coons (D):  49%/29%
30. New Hampshire Maggie Hassan (D):  48%/32%
31. Louisiana John Kennedy (R):  48%/24%
32. Connecticut Chris Murphy (D):  48%/34%
33. Arkansas Tom Cotton (R):  47%/31%
34. Virginia Tim Kaine (D):  47%/32%
35. Alabama Richard Shelby (R):  47%/27%
36. Utah Mike Lee (R): 47%/28%
37. Washington Maria Cantwell (D):  47%/30%
38. New York Kirsten Gillibrand (D):  47%/28%
39. Arkansas John Boozman (R):  47%/26%
40. Oregon Jeff Merkley (D):  47%/25%
41. New Jersey Cory Booker (D):  47%/33%
42. New York Chuck Schumer (D):  47%/34%
43. Ohio Sherrod Brown (D):  46%/29%
44. Connecticut Richard Blumenthal (D):  46%/37%
45. Idaho Mike Crapo (R): 46%/31%
46. Michigan Debbie Stabenow (D):  46%/35%
47. Georgia David Perdue (R):  46%/28%
48. Pennsylvania Bob Casey (D):  46%/29%
49. Louisiana Bill Cassidy (R):  46%/26%
50. Nebraska Ben Sasse (R):  46%/30%
51. Washington Patty Murray (D):  45%/31%
52. Utah Orrin Hatch (R): 45%/37%
53. Nebraska Deb Fischer (R):  45%/36%
54. West Virginia Shelley Moore Capito (R):  44%/33%
55. Maryland Chris Van Hollen (D):  44%/21%
56. Minnesota Tina Smith (D):  43%/26%
57. Kentucky Rand Paul (R):  43%/38%
58. Tennessee Lamar Alexander (R):  43%/30%
59. California Kamala Harris (D):  43%/29%
60. Georgia Johnny Isakson (R):  43%/27%
61. Texas John Cornyn (R): 43%/25%
62. West Virginia Joe Manchin (D):  43%/44%
63. Idaho James Risch (R): 43%/29%
64. California Dianne Feinstein (D):  43%/37%
65. New Mexico Tom Udall (D):  42%/30%
66. New Mexico Martin Heinrich (D):  42%/32%
67. North Dakota Heidi Heitkamp (D):  42%/45%
68. Mississippi Cindy Hyde-Smith (R):  42%/34%
69. Iowa Chuck Grassley (R):  42%/40%
70. Illinois Tammy Duckworth (D):  41%/33%
71. Florida Marco Rubio (R):  41%/38%
72. North Carolina   Richard Burr (R):  40%/30%
73. Iowa Joni Ernst (R): 40%/37%
74. Alabama Doug Jones (D):  40%/35%
75. Alaska Dan Sullivan (R):  40%/33%
76. Tennessee Bob Corker (R):  40%/36%
77. Florida Bill Nelson (D):  40%/41%
78. Indiana Todd Young (R):  39%/26%
79. Missouri Roy Blunt (R):  39%/35%
80. Colorado Michael Bennet (D):  39%/29%
81. Alaska Lisa Murkowski (R):  39%/42%
82. Indiana Joe Donnelly (D):  39%/39%
83. Oklahoma James Lankford (R):  39%/32%
84. Wisconsin Ron Johnson (R):  38%/36%
85. Ohio Rob Portman (R): 38%/31%
86. Kentucky Mitch McConnell (R):  38%/47%
87. Kansas Jerry Moran (R):  38%/32%
88. Oklahoma James Inhofe (R):  38%/35%
89. Pennsylvania Pat Toomey (R):  37%/34%
90. Colorado Cory Gardner (R):  37%/35%
91. North Carolina Thom Tillis (R):  36%/32%
92. Kansas Pat Roberts (R):  36%/37%
93. Illinois Dick Durbin (D):  36%/39%
94. Missouri Claire McCaskill (D):  36%/49%
95. Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto (D):  36%/33%
96. Arizona Jon Kyl (R): 35%/24%
97. Nevada Dean Heller (R):  35%/45%
98. Michigan Gary Peters (D):  33%/27%
99. New Jersey Bob Menendez (D):  33%/45%
100. Arizona Jeff Flake (R):  28%/49%

RON’S COMMENT: These ratings are based on polling conducted between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, which means some of the ratings may have changed more recently. It also means that some of the senators rated are no longer in office…. Names above in italics have net negative ratings.

• Vermonters Bernie Sanders and Pat Leahy, together with Wyoming’s John Barrasso, rank one and two. They’re also the only senators with job approval ratings above 60%…. According to this polling, four of the 10 most popular senators are Republicans, four are Democrats and two are independents who caucus with the Democrats.
• Five of the 10 least popular senators are Republicans and five are Democrats…. Four of the five incumbents who lost re-election last year (Heller, Heitkamp, Nelson and McCaskill) had net negative job ratings in this polling. Donnelly, who also lost, was even …. Former Sen. Flake, who did not run again, ranked at the bottom. Menendez’s rating was the second worse, and he won re-election.
• 2020 Senate elections: Five senators who may have tough re-election races next year have net positive job ratings: Jones (D-AL), Gardner (R-CO), Collins (R-ME), Tillis (R-NC) and Smith (D-MN). McSally (R-AZ) is also likely to have a big race, but she wasn’t included in the job ratings because of her recent appointment to the seat. McConnell (R-KY) may also have a re-election fight, and his job rating is net negative…. Next year, Republicans will have to protect two seats in states that Hillary Clinton carried: Gardner in Colorado and Collins in Maine. Clinton carried Colorado by 5 points and won Maine by 3. Democrats have to protect two seats in states that were won by Donald Trump: Jones in Alabama and Gary Peters in Michigan. Trump won Alabama by a wide margin, but his margin in Michigan was less than a point….Sens. Alexander (R-TN) and Roberts (R-KS) have announced they’re not seeking re-election in 2020.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
SHUTDOWN: CNN, Jan. 10-11
SENATOR JOB RATINGS: Morning Consult, Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2018

AS WE MOVE INTO THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, SEND A FREE SUBSCRIPTION TO FRIENDS AND CLIENTS WHO WOULD ENJOY RECEIVING IT. GO TO LUNCHTIMEPOLITICS.COM AND ENTER THEIR NAMES AND EMAILS. 

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.