Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, January 11, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
NORTH CAROLINA POLITICS
Among voters statewide
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Thom Tillis’ job performance?
RON’S COMMENT: Republican Sen. Tillis is up for re-election in 2020. He defeated Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014 in a close contest. Several Democrats are looking at the race.
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Roy Cooper’s job performance?
RON’S COMMENT: Democratic Gov. Cooper’s job rating in this poll, which was completed earlier this week, is not nearly as good as the poll we report below (51/26), which reflects data collected over the past three months. If both are accurate––or close to accurate––it indicates that most recently Cooper’s positive rating has been declining.
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Pat McCrory (R): +4 (45-41)
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Phil Berger (R): +14 (48-34)
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): +12 (47-35)
RON’S COMMENT: Democratic Gov. Cooper is up for re-election in 2020 in this important swing state. This poll shows Cooper leading all possible rivals, although the trial heat against former GOP Gov. McCrory is pretty close. Cooper narrowly defeated McCrory in 2016.
GOVERNORS: APPROVAL RATINGS
Among voters statewide
State, Governor: Approval %/Disapproval %
- Massachusetts Charlie Baker (R): 72%/14%
- Maryland Larry Hogan (R): 68%/17%
- Alabama Kay Ivey (R): 63%/19%
- New Hampshire Chris Sununu (R): 60%/23%
- Wyoming Matt Mead (R): 60%/26%
- Vermont Phil Scott (R): 59%/27%
- South Dakota Dennis Daugaard (R): 58%/26%
- Arkansas Asa Hutchinson (R): 57%/24%
- Texas Greg Abbott (R): 56%/24%
- Hawaii David Ige (D): 54%/33%
- Georgia Nathan Deal (R): 53%/25%
- Nebraska Pete Ricketts (R): 53%/31%
- Nevada Brian Sandoval (R): 53%/22%
- North Dakota Doug Burgum (R): 53%/22%
- South Carolina Henry McMaster (R): 53%/25%
- Utah Gary Herbert (R): 53%/26%
- Mississippi Phil Bryant (R): 52%/28%
- Montana Steve Bullock (D): 52%/29%
- Pennsylvania Tom Wolf (D): 52%/32%
- Tennessee Bill Haslam (R): 52%/24%
- Delaware John Carney (D): 51%/25%
- North Carolina Roy Cooper (D): 51%/26%
- New York Andrew Cuomo (D): 50%/38%
- Arizona Doug Ducey (R): 49%/32%
- Colorado John Hickenlooper (D): 49%/30%
- Idaho Butch Otter (R): 49%/35%
- Indiana Eric Holcomb (R): 49%/22%
- Louisiana John Bel Edwards (D): 49%/30%
- Ohio John Kasich (R): 48%/32%
- Florida Rick Scott (R): 47%/41%
- Minnesota Mark Dayton (D): 47%/35%
- Virginia Ralph Northam (D): 47%/25%
- West Virginia Jim Justice (R): 45%/38%
- Missouri Mike Parson (R): 44%/18%
- New Jersey Phil Murphy (D): 44%/35%
- Washington Jay Inslee (D): 44%/32%
- Rhode Island Gina Raimondo (D): 43%/49%
- California Jerry Brown (D): 42%/40%
- Iowa Kim Reynolds (R): 42%/41%
- Oregon Kate Brown (D): 41%/44%
- Wisconsin Scott Walker (R): 41%/51%
- Maine Paul LePage (R): 39%/54%
- Kansas Jeff Colyer (R): 37%/32%
- New Mexico Susana Martinez (R): 35%/49%
- Kentucky Matt Bevin (R): 34%/51%
- Michigan Rick Snyder (R): 34%/50%
- Alaska Bill Walker (I): 27%/51%
- Illinois Bruce Rauner (R): 25%/60%
- Connecticut Dan Malloy (D): 20%/69%
- Oklahoma Mary Fallin (R): 16%/72%
RON’S COMMENT: These ratings are based on polling conducted between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, which means some of the ratings may have gone up or down during that period. It also means that some of the governors rated are no longer in office…. Once again, Republicans Baker and Hogan lead the list. Also, nine of the top 10 most popular governors are Republicans––and eight of the 10 least popular governors are Republicans…. Of the 10 least popular governors, the four who sought re-election in 2018 lost (both Walkers, Colyer and Rauner). Colyer lost in the primary and Alaska’s Walker, an independent, actually withdrew from the race nearing the end of the campaign…. Malloy and Fallin, who rank at the bottom, did not run last year…. No incumbent governor who had a net positive job rating based on these numbers was defeated in November…. Louisiana’s Edwards, a Democrat, seeks re-election this year. He’s net positive in this data (49/30) and ranks about in the middle of the list. His approval rating is 67% among Democrats, 43% among independents and 38% among Republicans. Edwards’ bid for another term was recently boosted when Sen. John Kennedy (R) decided not to run. But, as a Democrat in a red state, Edwards could still face a battle …. Kentucky’s Bevin, a Republican, is up for re-election this year. Polls show he has a tough fight on his hands. His job rating in this poll is decidedly negative (34/51)…. Mississippi also has a gubernatorial election this year, and GOP incumbent Bryant is term-limited…. Note: Names above in italics have net negative ratings.
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
GOVERNORS: APPROVAL RATINGS: Morning Consult, Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2018
NORTH CAROLINA POLITICS: PPP (D), Jan. 4-7
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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