Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, January 10, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Despite recent events, President Trump’s job approval rating remains steady at 44%. Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%….Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NORTH CAROLINA: PRESIDENT
Among voters statewide
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (49-44)
Bernie Sanders (D) over Donald Trump (R): +3 (48-45)
Donald Trump (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D): even (46-46)
Donald Trump (R) and Kamala Harris (D): even (45-45)
Donald Trump (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +1 (46-45)
Donald Trump (R) over Cory Booker (D): +1 (46-45)
RON’S COMMENT: North Carolina has been a crucial swing state. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton there 50-46. In today’s poll, Trump is losing to Biden and Sanders, ties Warren and Harris and posts slight leads over O’Rourke and Booker. Note that Trump’s vote doesn’t top 46% in any of the trial heats…. The state has 15 Electoral votes, a nice haul for the eventual winner.
POPULARITY RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Nikki Haley: 44%/26%
Susan Collins: 27%/33%
Elizabeth Warren: 41%/42%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 36%/38%
Rashida Tlaib: 27%/33%
RON’S COMMENT: The female politician on this list with the best national rating is Republican Haley, she’s clearly net positive. All of the others––Republican Sen. Collins as well as Democratic Sen. Warren and U.S. Reps. Ocasio-Cortez and Tlaib––have ratings that lean to the negative side…. Among Republicans, Haley rates 61% favorable/10% unfavorable––making her a future GOP contender for national office…. Warren, who is running for her party’s presidential nomination, rates 63% favorable/11% unfavorable among Democrats, which is a solidly positive score…. Among Democrats, Ocasio-Cortez rates 54% favorable/10% unfavorable, which makes her an influential spokesperson within her party.
GENDER PERCEPTIONS: PUBLIC OFFICE
Among voters nationwide
What do you think would be the ideal situation when it comes to the number of women in elected offices?
- Having more women than there are now but still not as many women as men: 10%
- Having about an equal number of women and men: 57%
- Having more women than men: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: 67% of Democrats, 51% of independents, 46% of Republicans, 49% of men and 60% of women say they want an equal number of women and men in office.
Do you think men or women in high political offices are better at…
Dealing with immigration policy
Men are better: 13%
Women are better: 17%
No difference: 59%
Working well under pressure
Men are better: 16%
Women are better: 18%
No difference: 57%
Maintaining a tone of civility and respect in politics
Men are better: 10%
Women are better: 30%
No difference: 51%
Handling economic conditions
Men are better: 12%
Women are better: 16%
No difference: 62%
Working out compromises
Men are better: 7%
Women are better: 34%
No difference: 51%
Standing up for what they believe in, despite political pressure
Men are better: 10%
Women are better: 23%
No difference: 57%
Dealing with national security and defense
Men are better: 26%
Women are better: 10%
No difference: 54%
Creating a safe and respectful workplace
Men are better: 8%
Women are better: 34%
No difference: 50%
Being persuasive
Men are better: 10%
Women are better: 20%
No difference: 59%
Being compassionate and empathetic
Men are better: 3%
Women are better: 52%
No difference: 37%
Serving as a role model for children
Men are better: 5%
Women are better: 30%
No difference: 57%
Dealing with the federal budget deficit
Men are better: 8%
Women are better: 15%
No difference: 66%
Being honest and ethical
Men are better: 4%
Women are better: 24%
No difference: 64%
RON’S COMMENT: On most issues, a majority of voters say the public official’s gender makes no difference to them. But among voters who do perceive a difference, women politicians are wiping out male politicians. Men only lead on dealing with national security and defense. Women are strongest on being compassionate and empathetic. However, there are only minor differences on immigration, working well under pressure and handling economic conditions––making these a wash given the big majorities of voters who say gender makes no difference on them.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
POPULARITY RATINGS, GENDER PERCEPTIONS: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 6-8
NORTH CAROLINA: PPP (D), Jan. 4-7
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans
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