Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, January 7, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters/Ipsos) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.
TRUMP RE-ELECT
Among voters nationwide
If Donald Trump runs for reelection in 2020 as the Republican candidate, will you…?
Definitely vote for Trump: 22%
Probably vote for Trump: 11%
Probably vote for Democratic candidate: 11%
Definitely vote for Democratic candidate: 33%
Would vote for Independent or other candidate: 11%
Not Sure: 13%
RON’S COMMENT: One-third of the electorate plans on voting for Trump, while 44% plans on voting for his Democratic opponent. Another 11% plans on voting for an independent or third-party candidate. Also, 13% are not sure––a sizable voting bloc that could swing the election…. Note: Trump received 46% of the national vote in 2016. To capture the same percentage in 2020, he’d need to win a little over half of the 24% who say they’re either “not sure” or will be voting for a third candidate.
THE ECONOMY
Among voters nationwide
In general, do you think the American economy is on the right track or is it off on the wrong track?
Right track: 43%
Wrong track: 45%
Don’t know: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters are almost evenly split on whether the economy is moving on the right or wrong track.
SELF-IDENTIFIED VOTER IDEOLOGY
Among voters nationwide
Do you think of yourself as fiscally liberal or conservative?
Fiscally liberal: 21%
Fiscally conservative: 47%
Do not lean either way: 32%
Do you think of yourself as socially liberal or conservative?
Socially liberal: 32%
Socially conservative: 39%
Do not lean either way: 28%
RON’S COMMENT More voters are willing to describe themselves as conservatives than as liberals, especially on fiscal matters. In addition, almost three in ten voters do not view themselves as either conservative or liberal on fiscal and social issues. There are more fiscal conservatives (47%) than social conservatives (39%) and more social liberals (32%) than fiscal liberals (21%).
TRUMP INVESTIGATION
Among voters nationwide
How long do you think independent counsel Robert Mueller should keep on investigating?
Stop immediately or within a month: 41%
2 to 6 months: 21%
6 months to a year: 7%
Indefinitely: 32%
RON’S COMMENT: Two in five think the investigation should go on at least another six months and an additional one in five are willing to give it two to six more months. Roughly two in five voters want it to end now.
Would you favor trying to impeach President Trump over lying and trying to make payments to women who claimed they had affairs with him or does that return us to 1998 and what happened with President Clinton?
Favor trying to impeach: 49%
Would return us to 1998: 51%
RON’S COMMENT: This is an interesting, perhaps odd, way to word the question. I’m not sure what I think about it. In any case, the results show a near even split.
Do you think the special counsel investigation has failed to find any Russian collusion and is now just trying to find even alleged campaign finance violations to entrap the President?
Yes: 50%
No: 50%
RON’S COMMENT: A dead even voter split on this question.
Which comes closer to you view of the special counsel’s investigation into the 2016 election?
It is an unbiased investigation dealing with serious issues: 56%
It is a biased political investigation designed to hurt President Trump: 44%
RON’S COMMENT: On this question about the credibility of the investigation, a decisive 56% rule in favor of Mueller––while 44% side with the president’s position.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TRUMP RE-ELECT, THE ECONOMY, SELF-IDENTIFIED VOTER IDEOLOGY, TRUMP INVESTIGATION: Harvard-Harris, Dec. 24-25
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