LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump: Naughty or Nice? – Healthcare – Rating Presidential Prospects

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, December 20, 2018

Down 1 from Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 38% (Gallup) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 11 points higher than his approval rating…. Demographic breakdown: According to The Economist/YouGov poll, as we reach year end, Trump’s approval rating is 47% among men, 37% among women, 26% among voters 18-29, 54% among voters older than 65, 48% among whites, 14% among blacks, 35% among Hispanics, 11% of Democrats, 39% of independents and 86% among Republicans.

Lunchtime Politics will be back January 3rd. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

Among voters nationwide 

% = Favorable/Unfavorable

  • Donald Trump: 40%/56%
  • Joe Biden: 53%/33% (Dems: 84/7)
  • Bernie Sanders: 44%/42% (Dems: 74/13)
  • Beto O’Rourke: 24%/20% (Dems: 45/4)
  • Kamala Harris: 20%/22% (Dems: 41/4)
  • Elizabeth Warren: 30%/37% (Dems: 60/12)
  • Cory Booker: 22%/26% (Dems: 46/5)
  • Michael Bloomberg: 22%/32% (Dems: 36/19)
  • Kristen Gillibrand: 14%/17% (Dems: 28/7)
  • Sherrod Brown: 12%/9% (Dems: 24/2)
  • Hillary Clinton: 32%/61% (Dems: 70/30)

RON’S COMMENT: For possible Democratic presidential candidates, the first “Favorable/Unfavorable” numbers (above) are among all voters and the second “Favorable/Unfavorable” numbers are among Democrats only…. As you can see, Biden is clearly the best liked. He’s the only potential 2020 candidate who has a favorability rating above 50% among all voters and over 80% among Democrats. The question is whether Democrats want him to be their presidential nominee?…. Among only Democrats, the new faces––O’Rourke, Harris and Booker––all rate similarly well. They continue to have the best field positions in terms of virtually no negatives among Democrats plus growth potential…. Warren’s rating among all voters is net negative, but she’s 5:1 positive among Democrats. Brown and Gillibrand are less known and rate lowest…. Sanders’ favorable rating among all voters has gone down 4 points and his unfavorable score has gone up 4 points since January…. Hillary Clinton has the worst rating among all voters: Her unfavorable score is 5 points higher than Trump’s. While she’s clearly net positive among Democrats, her negative rating among fellow partisans is higher than all other Democrats, at 30%….  Bloomberg is net positive among Democrats, but net negative among all voters…. Note that this poll left out a number of possible candidates, including Amy Klobuchar, who has started to register in a few other polls lately.

Among voters nationwide

Do you think the health care system in this country… 

Works pretty well and requires only minor changes: 20%
Needs fundamental changes: 46%
Needs to be completely rebuilt: 30%
Not sure: 5%

RON’S COMMENT: More than three-fourths of voters think the healthcare system needs either fundamental changes or to be completely rebuilt. Notably, there are not major differences by party on this question.

Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare”? 

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 43%

RON’S COMMENT: The partisan divide is stark on this question––84% of Democrats, 11% of Republicans and 39% of independents approve of Obamacare…. However: Only 38% among the entire electorate say it’s been a success. An additional 17% say it’s been both a failure and success and 38% say it’s been a failure.

Do you think the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare should be expanded, kept the same, or repealed? 

Expanded: 40%
Kept the same: 12%
Repealed: 40%
Not sure: 9%

RON’S COMMENT: 9% of Democrats, 35% of independents and 81% of Republicans want to repeal Obamacare.

Which comes closer to your opinion? 

  • If policymakers made the right changes, they could reform the health care system without spending more money to do it: 74%
  • To make any real reforms to the health care system, policymakers will need to spend more money, either by raising some taxes, taking from other programs or increasing the deficit: 26%

Which party do you think would do a better job handling the problem of health care?

Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 34%
About the same: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: Democrats have a clear advantage over Republicans on the healthcare issue. But, independents­­––the key swing voters in most general elections––break only narrowly for Democrats, 28-24, with 48% of them seeing both parties as about the same.

Among voters nationwide 

How do you think Santa Claus will rate President Trump on his list this year? [Asked of those who celebrate Christmas]

Nice: 39%
Naughty: 61%

RON’S COMMENT: 7% of Democrats, 38% of independents, 73% of Republicans, 43% of men and 32% of women say Trump has been “nice.”

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS: Quinnipiac, Dec. 12-17
U.S. HEALTH CARE SYSTEM, TRUMP: NAUGHTY OR NICE?: The Economist/YouGov, Dec. 16-18

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