LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Senate Campaign Spending – National Donor Profiles

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, November 14, 2018

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 38% (Gallup) to 46% (Rasmussen). The third poll had it at 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.

2018 SENATE CAMPAIGN SPENDING
Based on data compiled by Open Secrets (numbers rounded)

$ = Candidate Raised + Outside Group Spending

Florida
Scott (R): $69 million + $32 million
Nelson (D): $28 million +$53 million

Missouri
Hawley (R): $10 million + $41 million
McCaskill (D): $35 million + $36 million

Texas
Cruz (R): $40 million + $9 million
O’Rourke (D): $69 million + $5 million

Arizona
Sinema (D): $19 million + $32 million
McSally (R): $16 million + $28 million

Indiana
Braun (R): $16 million + $28 million
Donnelly (D): $16 million + $38 million

Nevada
Rosen (D): $21 million + $41 million
Heller (R): $14 million + $25 million

Tennessee
Blackburn (R): $13 million + $30 million
Bredesen (D): $16 million + $23 million

Montana
Tester (D): $19 million + $20 million
Rosendale (R): $5 million +$22 million

North Dakota
Cramer (R): $6 million + $9 million
Heitkamp (D): $27 million + $9 million

Wisconsin
Baldwin (D): $29 million + $6 million
Vukmir (R): $5 million + $11 million

New Jersey
Menendez (D): $11 million + $13 million
Hugin (R): $30 million + $6 million

RON’S COMMENT: As you can see from these races, tons of money was dropped in this year’s Senate elections. Notably, the biggest spenders didn’t always win. Loser Heitkamp, an incumbent, outspent winner Cramer by more than 4-1, although spending by outside groups was about even. Loser McCaskill, also an incumbent, outspent her opponent by more than 3-1, although outside groups helped offset the advantage. Loser Hugin outspent winner Menendez nearly 3-1, although Menendez benefitted from twice as much outside spending. Winner Blackburn was outspent slightly in the candidates’ campaigns, although outside groups made it up for her, and then some. Loser O’Rourke outspent winner Cruz by $29 million in the candidate campaigns.

INCUMBENT VS. CHALLENGER SPENDING
Based on data compiled by Open Secrets (numbers rounded)

SENATE RACES 2018
Incumbent raised: $539 million
Challenger raised: $350 million
Open seat candidates: $83 million
TOTAL: $972 million

HOUSE RACES 2018
Incumbent raised: $711 million
Challenger raised: $438 million
Open seat candidates: $385 million
TOTAL: $1.5 billion

2018 CAMPAIGN DONORS
Based on data compiled by Open Secrets (numbers rounded)

• 0.54% of all 248 million U.S. adults gave a campaign contribution of $200 or more.
• 0.08% of all 248 million U.S. adults gave a campaign contribution of $2,700 or more.
• 1.4 million donors gave between $200 and $2,699 for a total of $831 million. Democrats received $338 million, Republicans received $183 million, PACs received $295 million.
• 200,000 donors gave $2,700+ for a total of $2.6 billion. Democrats received $888 million, Republicans received $663 million, PACs received $444 million.

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