Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, November 8, 2018
POLLS VS. ACTUAL RESULTS
In 2018 key races
RON’S COMMENT: The following data shows final public polls in key U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. We use only the last pubic poll from each source and include polls nearest to Election Day.
As you can see below, many polls were either on the money or fairly close to the actual vote margins. But there were a number of individual polls that missed the mark by fairly large spreads.
Some candidates underpolled in most or all pre-election surveys. For example, no poll showed DeWine (R) leading the Ohio’s governor’s race, even though he won it by 4.3 points. Two late-breaking polls did have it even. Only two polls showed Scott (R) and DeSantis (R) leading their respective races in Florida. Also, no reported polls caught the full extent of the following candidates’ victory margins: Braun (R) in Indiana and Hawley (R) in Missouri, Kelly (D) in Kansas and Sisolak (D) in Nevada. Statewide Democrats in Nevada often underpoll.
To be fair as possible to the outfits that conducted and sponsored these polls, we include only polls that are closest to Election Day. However, that methodology is not perfect. Polls are pictures in time. They don’t reflect what happens after the interviewing is completed, such as last-minute voter shifts, news events, campaign errors or Election Day turnout efforts. We also need to remember that polls can only do so much in terms of statistical precision. They have scientific margins of error that are usually between +/- 3% and +/- 5%. Even surveys that are properly conducted will have trouble hitting the mark in an election that will be decided by a narrow margin.
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Key
STATE/OFFICE
Election winner’s name/(Party)/Current lead in actual votes
Polling Average: Candidate ahead in polling average
Poll source: + Candidate leading that poll with margin size (rounded)
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FLORIDA SENATE
Scott (R) leading by 0.2 points
Polling average: Nelson +2.8
Trafalgar: Scott +2
HarrisX: Scott +1
Research Co.: Nelson +1
Gravis: Nelson +3
Change: Nelson +4
NBC/Marist: Nelson +4
St. Pete Polls: Nelson +4
Emerson: Nelson +5
Quinnipiac: Nelson +7
MONTANA SENATE
Tester (D) leading by 3.1 points
Polling average: Tester +1.3
Change: Rosendale +3
HarrisX: Tester +6
Trafalgar: Tester +1
WEST VIRGINA SENATE
Manchin (D) leading by 3.2 points
Polling average: Manchin +5
Emerson: Manchin +5
MetroNews: Manchin +5
INDIANA SENATE
Braun (R) leading by 7.2 points
Polling average: Donnelly +0.4
CBS/YouGov: Braun +3
Cygnal: Braun +3
HarrisX: Braun +1
NBC/Marist: Donnelly +2
Fox News: Donnelly +7
ARIZONA SENATE
McSally (R) leading by 1 point
Polling average: Sinema +0.3
Trafalgar: McSally +2
Gravis: McSally +1
OH Pred. Insights: McSally +1
Fox News: Even
Emerson: Sinema +1
Research Co.: Sinema +1
HarrisX: Sinema +5
MISSOURI SENATE
Hawley (R) leading by 6 points
Polling average: Hawley +0.7
Trafalgar: Hawley +4
Emerson: Hawley +3
HarrisX: Hawley +1
Missouri Scout: even
Fox News: even
NBC/Marist: McCaskill +3
NEVADA SENATE
Rosen (D) leading by 5 points
Polling average: Rosen +1.5
Emerson: Rosen +4
CNN: Rosen: +3
HarrisX: Rosen +2
Trafalgar: Heller +3
NORTH DAKOTA SENATE
Cramer (R) leading by 10.8 points
Polling average: Cramer +9
Fox News: Cramer +9
TEXAS SENATE
Cruz (R) leading by 2.6 points
Polling average: Cruz +4.3
Trafalgar: Cruz +9
Quinnipiac: Cruz +5
Emerson: Cruz +3
Change: even
MICHIGAN SENATE
Stabenow (D) leading by 6 points
Polling average: Stabenow +8.6
Research Co.: Stabenow +16
Gravis: Stabenow +13
Trafalgar: Stabenow +9
Mitchell: Stabenow +3
Change: Stabenow +2
NEW JERSEY SENATE
Menendez (D) leading by 9.6 points
Polling average: Menendez +11.3
Quinnipiac: Menendez +15
Stockton: Menendez +12
Change: Menendez +10
Vox Populi: Menendez +8
TENNESSEE SENATE
Blackburn (R) leading by 10.8 points
Polling average: Blackburn +5.5
Fox News: Blackburn +9
Emerson: Blackburn +8
Vox Populi: Blackburn +6
Cygnal: Blackburn +6
CNN: Blackburn +4
Targoz: even
FLORIDA GOVERNOR
DeSantis (R) leading by 0.6 points
Polling average: Gillum +2.3
Trafalgar: DeSantis +3
Targoz: DeSantis +1
Cygnal: even
Gravis: Gillum +1
CNN: Gillum +1
Research Co.: Gillum +1
HarrisX: Gillum +2
NBC/Marist: Gillum +4
St. Pete Polls: Gillum +5
Emerson: Gillum +5
Vox Populi: Gillum +6
Quinnipiac: Gillum +7
GEORGIA GOVERNOR
Kemp (R) leading by 1.6 points
Polling average: Kemp +1.8
Trafalgar: Kemp +12
Emerson: Kemp +2
Cygnal: Kemp +2
Journal-Constitution: even
Fox 5/Opinion Savvy: Abrams +1
20/20 Insight: Abrams +4
IOWA GOVERNOR
Reynolds (R) leading by 3 points
Polling average: Hubbell +0.3
Emerson: Reynolds +4
Des Moines Register: Hubbell +2
Change: Hubbell +3
KANSAS GOVERNOR
Kelly (D) leading by 4.5 points
Polling average: Kelly +0.5
Ipsos: Kelly +2
Emerson: Kobach +1
MICHIGAN GOVERNOR
Whitmer (D) leading by 9.1 points
Polling average: Whitmer +6.3
Change: Whitmer +8
Mitchell: Whitmer +7
Research Co. Whitmer +4
OHIO GOVERNOR
DeWine (R) leading by 4.3 points
Polling average: Cordray +2.8
Research Co.: even
Cygnal: even
Emerson: Cordray +3
Trafalgar: Cordray +4
Gravis: Cordray +5
Change: Cordray +5
OREGON GOVERNOR
Brown (D) leading by 4.9 points
Polling average: Brown +4
Hoffman: Brown +3
Emerson: Brown +5
WISCONSIN GOVERNOR
Evers (D) leading by 1.2 points
Polling average: Evers +2
Emerson: Evers +5
Research Co.: Evers +1
Marquette: even
NEVADA GOVERNOR
Sisolak (D) leading by 4.1 points
Polling average: even
Emerson: Sisolak +1
CNN: Sisolak +1
HarrisX: even
Trafalgar: Laxalt +2
ARIZONA GOVERNOR
Ducey (R) leading by 17.8 points
Polling average: Ducey +13.8
Fox News: Ducey +18
Emerson: Ducey +15
Research Co.: Ducey +15
HarrisX: Ducey +14
Gravis: Ducey +13
Vox Populi: Ducey +8
NEW YORK GOVERNOR
Cuomo (D) leading by 21.8 points
Polling average: Cuomo +15
Research Co.: Cuomo +17
Siena: Cuomo +13
CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR
Newsom (D) leading by 18.6 points
Polling average: Newsom +15
Gravis: Newsom +20
Research Co.: Newsom +20
SurveyUSA: Newsom +15
Thomas Partners: +13
Change: Newsom +12
Probolosky: Newsom +10
(You may note that some of the polling averages differ from those we reported earlier this week, which is largely due to the timing of public release of a number of polls.)
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