Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, November 5, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (IBD/TIPP) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
GENERIC BALLOT FOR CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
NBC/WSJ: Democrats +7
ABC/Wash Post: Democrats +8
CNN: Democrats +13
IBD/TIPP: Democrats +9
Today’s average: Democrats +9.3
Friday’s average: Democrats +7.5
Oct. 26 average: Democrats +7.0
Oct. 19 average: Democrats +7.7
RON’S COMMENT: The LUNCHTIME POLITICS average on Friday had Democrats +7.5. Today, we add four more polls which show an average 9.3-point “generic ballot” advantage for Democrats.
Historical trend:
- In the 2014 midterm, the final “generic ballot” polling average was Republicans +1.8. In that election, the GOP picked up 13 House seats and 9 Senate seats. Republicans also had a margin of 5.7 points over Democrats in House votes actually cast nationwide.
- In the 2010 midterm, the final “generic ballot” polling average was Republicans +9.8. In that election, the GOP picked up 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats. Republicans also had a margin of 6.8 points over Democrats in House votes actually cast nationwide.
- In the 2006 midterm, the final “generic ballot” polling average was Democrats +11.6. In that election, the Democrats picked up 30 House seats and 6 Senate seats. Democrats also had a margin of 7.9 points over Republicans in House votes actually cast nationwide.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
NOTE: When looking at today’s polls, keep in mind: Polls are only pictures in time. They don’t predict what happens after the interviewing is completed. Much of the interviewing for many of these polls was conducted last week and do not reflect what happened over the weekend or today.
SENATE
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats now have small average leads in Florida and Nevada. Republicans have small average leads in Missouri and Arizona…. Over the last week, two polls have shown Feinstein’s lead in California to be 16-18 points and two other polls have shown it to be 7-9 points––painting two different pictures of a race that’s either cruising or tightening in the stretch…. Note that Quinnipiac and NBC/Marist polls show Senate and gubernatorial races breaking for Democrats (Nelson +7, Nelson +4, McCaskill +3, Menendez +15, Gillum +7, Gillum +4). There are other polls, however, that show Republicans holding their own.
FLORIDA (Gravis): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +3 (50-47)
FLORIDA (NBC): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +4 (50-46)
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +7 (51-44)
FLORIDA (Emerson): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +5 (50-45)
FLORIDA (St. Pete): Rick Scott (R) over Sen. Bill Nelson (D): +1 (49-48)
FLORIDA (NRF/Harris): Rick Scott (R) over Sen. Bill Nelson (D): +3 (48-45)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Nelson (D) +2.5
NEVADA (Emerson): Jacky Rosen (D) over Sen. Dean Heller (R): +4 (49-45)
NEVADA (Trafalgar-R): Sen. Dean Heller (R) over Jacky Rosen (D): +3 (49-46)
NEVADA (NRF-Harris): Sen. Dean Heller (R) and Jacky Rosen (D): even (45-45)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Rosen (D) +0.3
MISSOURI (Emerson): Josh Hawley (R) over Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): +3 (49-46)
MISSOURI (Trafalgar-R): Josh Hawley (R) over Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): +4 (48-44)
MISSOURI (NBC): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) over Josh Hawley (R): +3 (50-47)
MISSOURI (NRF-Harris): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Josh Hawley (R): +1 (46-45)
MISSOURI (Missouri Scout): Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Josh Hawley (R): even (47-47)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Hawley (D) +0.6
ARIZONA (ABC15/OPI): Martha McSally (R) over Kyrsten Sinema (D): +6 (49-43)
ARIZONA (NRF-Harris): Martha McSally (R) over Kyrsten Sinema (D): +1 (49-48)
ARIZONA (Emerson): Kyrsten Sinema (D) over Martha McSally (R): +1 (49-48)
ARIZONA (Trafalgar-R): Kyrsten Sinema (D) over Martha McSally (R): +3 (50-47)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: McSally (R) +0.8
MICHIGAN (Mitchell): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +7 (53-47)
MICHIGAN (Gravis): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +13 (54-41)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Stabenow (D) +10
NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bob Menendez (D) over Bob Hugin (R): +15 (55-40)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Melendez (D) +10.7
MINNESOTA (KSTP): Sen. Tina Smith (DFL) over Karin Housley (R): +8 (48-40)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Smith (D) +6
NEW MEXICO (Albuquerque Journal): Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) over Mick Rich (R): +20 (51-31-L12)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Heinrich (D) +17
CALIFORNIA (Stanford): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) over Kevin de Leon (D): +7 (36-29)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Feinstein (D) +12.5
GOVERNOR
RON’S COMMENT: Two new Georgia polls, one has the race a tie––consistent with other surveys––and one by a GOP-affiliated outfit has Republican Kemp far ahead…. In Florida, Democrat Gillum leads all new polls and has an average margin of 4.2 points…. The New Hampshire poll is a surprise. It shows incumbent Sununu in a tie. Previous polls had Sununu well ahead…. In Iowa, Democrat Hubbell leads the new Des Moines Register poll by 2 points. He’s winning independents by 6 and women by 13. Republican Reynolds, the state’s first female governor, leads men by 10…. Nevada sits on the razor’s edge, very close…. In Oklahoma, a GOP polling outfit finds Republican Stitt 7 points up. But, since this poll was conducted, two newer polls give Stitt narrower 3 and 4 point leads…. In New York, this poll is the first one finding Democratic incumbent Cuomo falling below 50%. It also shows him with his narrowest lead yet.
FLORIDA (NBC): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +4 (50-46)
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +7 (50-43)
FLORIDA (St. Pete): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +5 (50-45)
FLORIDA (Gravis): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +1 (48-47)
FLORIDA (NRF-Harris): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +3 (48-45)
FLORIDA (Emerson): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +5 (51-46)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Gillum (D) +4.2
GEORGIA (Univ. of GA): Stacey Abrams (D) over Brian Kemp (R): even (47-47-2)
GEORGIA (Trafalgar-R): Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +12 (52-40)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Kemp (R) +3.3
IOWA (Des Moines Register): Fred Hubbell (D) over Gov. Kim Reynolds (R): +2 (46-44-L2)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Reynolds (R) +0.7
NEVADA (NRF-Harris): Adam Laxalt (R) over Steve Sisolak (D): +1 (45-44)
NEVADA (Trafalgar-R): Adam Laxalt (R) over Steve Sisolak (D): +2 (47-45)
NEVADA (Emerson): Steve Sisolak (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +1 (48-47)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Laxalt (R) +0.7
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Chris Sununu (R) and Molly Kelly (D): even (49-49)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Sununu (R) +4
OKLAHOMA (Sooner Poll): Kevin Stitt (R) over Drew Edmondson (D): +3 (47-44)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Stitt (R) +5
OHIO (Cygnal): Mike DeWine (R) and Richard Cordray (D): even (43-43)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Cordray (D) +2.7
MICHIGAN (Mitchell): Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Bill Schuette (R): +14 (54-40)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Whitmer (D) +12.3
NEW MEXICO (Albuquerque Journal): Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Steve Pearce (R): +10 (53-43)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Lujan Grisham (D) +7.5
NEW YORK (Siena): Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) over Marc Molinaro (R): +13 (49-36)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Cuomo (D) +18
CALIFORNIA (Stanford): Gavin Newsom (D) over John Cox (R): +19 (53-34)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Newsom (D) +18
HOUSE
RON’S COMMENT: These polls show quite a few GOP-held House districts breaking for Democrats, though most battleground races remain very close. Republican incumbents who are slipping in today’s polls are: King, Barr, Rohrabacher, Handel, Hultgren, Faso, Sessions and Bishop. As we said a year ago, if there is any kind of a “blue wave,” the House will be ground zero.
IOWA 4: Rep. Steve King (R) over J.D. Scholten (D): +5 (47-42)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: King (R) +7
KENTUCKY 6: Rep. Andy Barr (R) over Amy McGrath (D): even (44-44)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Barr (R) +0.5
CALIFORNIA 48: Harley Rouda (D) over Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R): +1 (46-45)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Rohrabacher (R) +0.5
GEORGIA 6: Lucy McBath (D) over Rep. Karen Handel (R): +2 (46-44)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Handel (R) +1
ILLINOIS 14: Lauren Underwood (D) over Rep. Randy Hultgren (R): +6 (49-43)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Underwood (D) +1
NEW YORK 19: Antonio Delgado (D) over Rep. John Faso (R): +1 (43-42)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Delgado (D) +3
NEW YORK 22: Claudia Tenney (R) over Anthony Brindisi (D): +1 (46-45)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: even
TEXAS 32: Colin Allred (D) over Rep. Pete Sessions (R): +4 (46-42)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Allred (D) +1.5
VIRGINIA 7: Rep. David Brat (R) over Abigail Spanberger (D): +2 (46-44)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Brat (R) +0.5
WASHINGTON 8: Kim Schrier (D) over Dino Rossi (R): +3 (48-45)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Rossi (R) +3.5
MICHIGAN 8: Elissa Slotkin (D) over Rep. Mike Bishop (R): +7 (49-42)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Slotkin (D) +2
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
New House race trial heats today are based on the most recent NYT/Siena polling.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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