Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, November 2, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (NPR/Marist) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
FRIDAY’S GENERIC BALLOT FOR CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
The Economist: Democrats +5
NPR/PBS/Marist: Democrats +9
Reuters/Ipsos: Democrats +7
Harvard-Harris: Democrats +9
Current average: Democrats: +7.5
Last week: Democrats: +7.0
RON’S COMMENT: The average Democratic advantage in the nationwide generic ballot for Congress has slightly increased from 7 points last week to 7.5 points now.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
NOTE: Keep in mind that if a candidate’s lead is higher in today’s poll than in today’s polling average, it usually means he or she is doing better.
SENATE
RON’S COMMENT: This is the third poll in a row that shows Democrat Nelson beating Republican Scott in Florida 49-47. We don’t often see that kind of consistency…. In New Mexico, Democrat Heinrich holds a decent lead in his re-election bid. No big change there. But, this new poll shows third-candidate Gary Johnson (L), the state’s former governor, slipping to 7% from 21% in August. Republican Rich has moved up from 11% to 37% during that same period…. A new Tennessee poll shows a slight tightening of Republican Blackburn’s margin…. Ohio Democrat Brown had an 18-point lead in one poll early in October. This new poll shows his margin has been cut in half.
FLORIDA (CNN): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +2 (49-47)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Nelson (D) +2
TENNESSEE (CNN): Marsha Blackburn (R) over Phil Bredesen (D): +4 (49-45)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Blackburn (R) +6.8
NEW MEXICO (KOB): Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) over Mick Rich (R): +15 (52-37-L7)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Heinrich (D) +15.5
OHIO (Gravis): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Jim Renacci (R): +9 (46-37)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Brown (D) +7.5
CONNECTICUT (Gravis): Sen. Chris Murphy (D) over Matthew Corey (R): +23 (58-35)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Heinrich (D) +15.5
WISCONSIN (Emerson): Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over Leah Vukmir (R): +9 (53-44)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Baldwin (D) +10
VERMONT (Gravis): Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) over Lawrence Zupan (R): +36 (66-30)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Sanders (I) +38.5
GOVERNOR
RON’S COMMENT: There’s a polling crack-up in Connecticut. The Hearst poll shows Republican Stefanowski taking a lead for the first time, but the Gravis poll has Democrat Lamont with a 9-point advantage. Somebody’s got this one wrong…. In Iowa, a new poll shows GOP Gov. Reynolds has overtaken Democrat Hubbell by a 4-point margin. Hubbell led a Des Moines Register poll in September by 2 points…. Of the last three polls in Wisconsin, one has Democrat Evers ahead, one has Republican Gov. Walker slightly ahead and one has a tie…. One Ohio poll has Democrat Cordray ahead. The other shows a tie…. The Georgia race continues to be as tight as they come…. The Vermont governor’s race has closed up some…. While Democrat Gillum continues to top the Florida polls, his already narrow lead has slightly tightened…. Republican Lee in Tennessee holds a solid advantage, no surprise there…. Republican Noem has picked up a little steam in South Dakota…. New poll shows some tightening of Democrat Lujan Grisham’s margin in New Mexico.
GEORGIA (Journal-Constitution): Stacey Abrams (D) and Brian Kemp (R): even (47-47)
GEORGIA (Emerson): Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +2 (49-47)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Kemp (R) +0.3
FLORIDA (CNN): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +1 (49-48)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Gillum (D) +2.3
CONNECTICUT (Hearst): Bob Stefanowski (R) over Ned Lamont (D): +2 (40-38)
CONNECTICUT (Gravis): Ned Lamont (D) over Bob Stefanowski (R): +9 (46-37)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Lamont (D) +4.5
IOWA (Emerson): Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) over Fred Hubbell (D): +4 (49-45)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Reynolds (R) +1
SOUTH DAKOTA (Mason-Dixon): Kristi Noem (R) over Billie Sutton (D): +3 (47-44)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Noem (R) +1.5
OHIO (Cygnal): Richard Cordray (D) and Mike DeWine (R): even (43-43)
OHIO (Gravis): Richard Cordray (D) over Mike DeWine (R): +5 (48-43)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Cordray (D) +2.7
WISCONSIN: Tony Evers (D) over Gov. Scott Walker (R): +5 (51-46)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Evers (D) +1.3
VERMONT (Gravis): Gov. Phil Scott (R) over Christine Hallquist (D): +10 (49-39)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Scott (R) +12
NEW MEXICO (KOB): Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) over Steve Pearce (R): +5 (51-46)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Lujan Grisham (D) +7
MINNESOTA (KSTP): Tim Walz (DFL) over Jeff Johnson (R): +8 (49-41)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Walz (DFL) +7
TENNESSEE (CNN): Bill Lee (R) over Karl Dean (D): +10 (52-42)
TENNESSEE (Emerson): Bill Lee (R) over Karl Dean (D): +13 (54-41)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Lee (R) +13.3
ARKANSAS (Arkansas Poll): Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) over Jared Henderson (D): +24 (59-35)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Hutchinson (R) +30
HOUSE
RON’S COMMENT: This new poll from Alaska shows longtime GOP House member Don Young losing by a point to his Democratic challenger. Young was first elected to Congress in 1973 in a special election after incumbent Nick Begich (D) was declared dead in a plane crash along with then-Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA). Begich’s son, Mark, is running for governor of Alaska this year…. While GOP incumbent Miller (R) has a lead in West Virginia 3, GOP incumbents Lance and Comstock are losing in New Jersey 7 and Virginia 10…. Despite his legal troubles, GOP incumbent Collins has slightly expanded his lead in New York 7.
ALASKA-AT-LARGE (ASR): Alyse Galvin (D) over Rep. Don Young (R): +1 (49-48)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Young (R) +2
WEST VIRGINIA 3 (Emerson): Carol Miller (R) over Richard Ojeda (D): +7 (52-45)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Miller (R) +6
NEW JERSEY 7 (NYT/Siena): Tom Malinowski (D) over Rep. Leonard Lance (R): +8 (47-39)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Malinowski (D) +5.5
VIRGINIA 10 (Wash Post): Jennifer Wexton (D) over U.S. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R): +11 (54-43)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Wexton (D) +10.3
NEW YORK 27 (WHEC): Rep. Chris Collins (R) over Nate McMurray (D): +7 (45-38)
AVERAGE OF ALL RECENT POLLS: Collins (R) +4.7
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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