Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 31, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 40% (Gallup) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44% (based on the third poll from The Economist)…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
TENNESSEE (NBC/Marist): Marsha Blackburn (R) over Phil Bredesen (D): +5 (51-46)
TENNESSEE (Vox Populi): Marsha Blackburn (R) over Phil Bredesen (D): +6 (53-47)
TEXAS: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +10 (52-42)
NORTH DAKOTA: Kevin Cramer (R) over Heidi Heitkamp (D): +10 (49-39)
OHIO: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Jim Renacci (R): +19 (51-32)
CALIFORNIA: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) over Kevin de Leon (D): +9 (45-36)
MAINE: Angus King (I) over Eric Brakey (R): +13 (50-37)
CONNECTICUT: Sen. Chris Murphy (D) over Matthew Corey (R): +20 (55-35)
RON’S COMMENT:
TENNESSEE––Previous polls were in conflict. One had Democrat Bredesen ahead by 1 point and the other had Republican Blackburn ahead by 14 points (which was hard to believe). These two new surveys have Blackburn ahead by 5-6 points, despite the fact that Bredesen is more personally popular, according to the NBC/Marist poll: Blackburn is 45% favorable/46% unfavorable and Bredesen is 52% favorable/39% unfavorable. As expected, Bredesen is struggling to overcome the state’s heavy Republican orientation.
TEXAS––Cruz’s 10-point lead in this CBS 11 poll is twice as large as his margin in the last poll we reported (Quinnipiac, 5 points).
NORTH DAKOTA––Democratic incumbent Heitkamp continues to trail Republican Cramer. Even many Democrats are coming around to the view that this is now a lost cause. (With leaners, Cramer leads by 9 points.)
OHIO––What’s going on here? This Baldwin Wallace Univ. poll puts Democratic incumbent Brown ahead by 19 points. But, the recent Emerson College poll, conducted around the same time, had Brown’s lead much narrower, at 6 points.
CALIFORNIA––This poll shows Feinstein slipping. Her average lead of 17 points has declined to 9 in this survey. She’s winning Democrats 64-34, but de Leon is winning Republicans (34-23) and independents (44-39).
MAINE––Two previous polls showed incumbent King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, ahead by 27 points. This new poll has that lead down to 13 points.
GOVERNOR
GEORGIA: Stacey Abrams (D) over Brian Kemp (R): +1 (48-47-2)
OKLAHOMA: Kevin Stitt (R) over Drew Edmondson (D): +4 (46-42)
OHIO: Mike DeWine (R) and Richard Cordray (D): even (39-39)
CALIFORNIA: Gavin Newsom (D) overJohn Cox (R): +18 (58-40)
CONNECTICUT: Ned Lamont (D) over Bob Stefanowski (R): +7 (46-39)
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Chris Sununu (R) over Molly Kelly (D): +8 (51-43)
TENNESSEE: Bill Lee (R) over Karl Dean (D): +17 (57-40)
RON’S COMMENT:
GEORGIA––Democrat Abrams posts a 1-point lead in what has become one of the year’s most interesting elections. Republican Kemp has led most recent polls by 2-point margins. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote Tuesday, the top two candidates go into a December runoff.
OKLAHOMA––This race remains competitive. Observers on the ground say Stitt, a businessman, is having trouble breaking out of the GOP base and isn’t connecting with voters. He averages a 5.7-point lead.
OHIO: Democrat Cordray led the last poll we reported (Emerson College) by 3 points, but this one (Baldwin Wallace Univ.) has the race tied.
CALIFORNIA––Republican Cox’s inability to win over independents (he’s losing them by 21 points) or to do better among women (he losing them by 31 points) has derailed his longshot candidacy. Democrat Newsom averages a 19-point lead.
CONNECTICUT: Though Democrat Lamont remains ahead, recent polling shows Republican Stefanowski making this a real race.
NEW HAMPSHIRE––The previous poll had GOP incumbent Sununu ahead by 11 points. This new poll has it at 8 points.
TENNESSEE––Republican Lee averages an 18-point lead.
HOUSE
NORTH CAROLINA 9: Mark Harris (R) over Dan McCready (D): +1 (45-44)
KANSAS 2: Paul Davis (D) over Steve Watkins (R): +4 (41-37)
RON’S COMMENT:
NORTH CAROLINA 9––The average of the last three polls puts Republican Harris, an ardent social conservative, ahead by seven-tenths of a point. Both Trump and Romney won the district by 12 points. GOP incumbent Robert Pittenger was defeated by Harris in the primary.
KANSAS 2––This poll has Democrat Davis, who was the 2014 Democratic nominee for governor, ahead by 4 points. Another recent poll had Republican Watkins, a political newcomer, ahead by a point (45-44). To be doing this well in a House district that went for Trump by 18 points is good for Democrats.
RESPONSIBILITY FOR VIOLENT ACTS
Among voters nationwide
How much responsibility do you think the following people have for the recent acts of violence?
% = A lot/Some = Total
Democratic politicians: 27%/20% = 47%
Republican politicians: 33%/26% = 59%
Mainstream media: 37%/24% = 61%
Far-left liberal media: 36%/22% = 58%
Far-right conservative media: 35%/22% = 57%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows that many voters hold politicians and media of all partisan stripes responsible, at least in past and to some degree, for recent acts of violence. However, Republican politicians are seen as more responsible for violent acts than Democrats.
HALLOWEEN
Among adults statewide
Do you approve or disapprove of trick-or-treating?
Approve: 64%
Disapprove: 10%
Neither approve/disapprove: 21%
Do you plan on doing anything to celebrate Halloween this year?
Yes: 40%
No: 60%
(Asked of those who are not celebrating) Do you personally have any objections on religious grounds to celebrating Halloween?
Yes: 14%
No: 86%
SOURCES
CONNECTICUT, MAINE: Emerson College, Oct. 27-29
GEORGIA: Fox 5/Opinion Savvy, Oct. 28-29
OHIO: Baldwin Wallace Univ., Oct. 19-27
TEXAS: CBS 11, Oct. 25-26
TENNESSEE: NBC/Marist, Oct. 23-27; Vox Populi, Oct. 27-29
CALIFORNIA: Berkeley/IGS, Oct. 19-26
OKLAHOMA: Sooner Poll, Oct. 23-25
NORTH CAROLINA 9, KANSAS 2: NYT/Siena, Oct. 26-30
HALLOWEEN: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 21-23
RESPONSIBILITY FOR VIOLENT ACTS: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 28-30
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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